Welcome to 2018, everyone. And to celebrate, Niner Noise is dishing out our latest NFL Draft mock for Round 1.
The Cleveland Browns are officially on the clock, after securing their second first-overall pick in as many years. And with a flurry of needs on both sides of the ball, they could go in just about any direction.
We’ll get to our selection in a moment. But with the 2017 regular season now in the books, all those non-playoff teams are shifting their attention to free agency and the NFL Draft to be held in Dallas this upcoming April.
More from SF 49ers Draft
- 49ers 2023 NFL Draft tracker: Pick-by-pick news and analysis
- Predicting 49ers NFL Draft picks by looking at final mocks
- DraftKings NFL Draft Promo – Win $150 Guaranteed on Any $5 Bet
- 2023 NFL Draft: EDGE Byron Young could be impact player for 49ers
- 5 low-key NFL Draft options for 49ers who are flying under the radar
As per usual, our mocks are based off specific needs for each squad heading into the offseason. A lot can change between now and the draft, including players re-signed or free-agent moves, but let’s stick to established needs for now.
Additionally, the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs do not have a first-round pick in this year’s draft. Those were spent in the 2017 trade-up moves to land quarterbacks Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes, respectively.
Lastly, the draft order is based off team records/standings at the conclusion of Week 17.
So let’s dive in, mocking the latest picks to the rest of the league as we try to shake off any hangovers and bad memories from New Year’s celebrations.
Head coach Hue Jackson and the Browns tried to make things work with former Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer this season despite a roster lacking all kinds of talent.
All that happened is Kizer wrapped up the year at the very bottom of passer rating and completion percentage.
While the Browns’ constant swapping out of quarterbacks on a seemingly yearly basis is a problem, they need someone who can anchor the position well enough and provide the franchise with some semblance of stability at the position. Simply put, admit the mistake and move on.
USC’s Sam Darnold probably needs a few more weapons around him, and it would be smart for Cleveland to let him sit at least the first half of 2018, letting another QB — perhaps Kizer — absorb the lumps.
The good news is this is the first of two picks in the top five the Browns have. They’ll address another key need shortly.
Like the Browns, the New York Giants are going to need a lot of help on both sides of the ball this offseason.
Fortunately, they aren’t exactly pressed into rushing a quarterback into the fray right away. While the veteran Eli Manning is coming off the worst season in his pro career, he’s still worthy of another year under center — a “swan song,” of sorts, in New York.
UCLA’s Josh Rosen is, perhaps, the most NFL-ready quarterback in this year’s draft class. And as shown in the video below, he would feel much more comfortable going to the Giants than the Browns:
That argument makes sense. Cleveland has been the place where quarterbacks have gone to die, while New York has had consistency with the position dating back to 2004 when Manning took over starting duties.
New York can spend later picks on adding offensive line help, as well as assistance in the running game. But going with Rosen right off the bat in the NFL Draft makes too much sense.
The Indianapolis Colts have a lot of needs on both sides of the ball, and one might think it wise to invest early along the offensive line.
Quarterback Andrew Luck, after all, remains a high-prized investment even if he missed all of 2017. So protecting him is vital.
But the defense is terrible as well, which makes general manager Chris Ballard’s selection of North Carolina State edge rusher Bradley Chubb a wise one.
Chubb is the most gifted pass-rusher in this class. With Indy ranking towards the very bottom of sack totals in 2017, finding someone who can put regular pressure on opponents’ quarterbacks would go a long way in turning around what has been a disappointing defense in recent years.
The Browns do have the luxury of boasting two top-five picks in the NFL Draft, which hopefully makes some difference for this laughable franchise.
With the defense showing a little bit of grit in 2017, Cleveland goes back to the offensive side of the ball and lands one of the most explosive collegiate playmakers possible, Penn State running back Saquon Barkley.
Barkley’s impact would go a long way in taking pressure off quarterback Sam Darnold, whom the Browns took at No. 1 overall. Opponents would have to recognize Barkley’s abilities to make plays on the ground, therefore opening up things for Darnold, whenever he takes over signal-calling duties.
More importantly, Cleveland would actually have a player its fans would want to see on Sundays. He alone would make this franchise worth watching.
The Denver Broncos’ window to win another Super Bowl remains slightly open, although poor quarterbacking in recent years has prevented this team from reaching its zenith.
Trevor Siemian? No. Brock Osweiler? No. Paxton Lynch? Maybe, but probably not.
It’s more than likely general manager John Elway uses his first selection in the NFL Draft to target a high-profile quarterback as soon as possible. Some of the bigger names are already off the board, so he chooses to go with Wyoming’s Josh Allen.
For what it’s worth, Elway was on hand for the Potato Bowl to see Allen and the Cowboys and Central Michigan:
Hopefully this will be the pick that stabilizes this crucial position in Denver.
The New York Jets received some solid quarterbacking from the veteran, Josh McCown, before he was lost to a season-ending hand injury in Week 14. He’s also a free agent after this season. And while it’s not out of the question to see him return, an educated guess would have the Jets stocking up this position as soon as possible.
Their first pick in the NFL Draft grabs Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield, following up on the second mini run of quarterbacks in Round 1.
The Heisman Trophy recipient comes with red flags, and his on-field antics are sure to scare off some teams.
But this also lends credence to the thought Mayfield would be able to absorb a tough New York media base and handling the pressure associated with the nation’s top market.
Oh, and he’s pretty electric on the field too.
Defense should be the main focus for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this offseason, and no point surfaces to the top more than the lack of a pass rush.
The Bucs finished dead last in sacks in 2017, and the lack of an explosive pass-rusher is something the organization should address as quickly as possible. Tampa Bay can worry about its other defensive needs later, as elite pass-rushers are rare.
LSU’s Arden Key is that rare breed of specimen — powerful, twitchy and explosive. There have been questions surrounding his durability and commitment, but 2017 certainly suggested he’s capable of bringing the pressure on a regular basis.
A strong pass rush would also go a long way in helping a beleaguered secondary, as defensive backs are only as good as their pass rush.
Key would help that immensely.
The Chicago Bears invested heavily in their quarterback of the future, Mitchell Trubisky, and now they need to find him weapons.
It’s looking as if hopeful No. 1 wide receiver Kevin White isn’t going to be a long-term solution, and one can only think how things would have gone if the team had been able to hold onto now-Philadelphia Eagles wideout Alshon Jeffery.
So, as the need goes, the Bears go with a top-ranked receiving prospect in Southern Methodist’s Courtland Sutton.
Sutton, all of 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, is the kind of physical mismatch nightmare any quarterback wishes he had as a target. The receiver is more than capable of beating press coverage and has enough elusiveness to get open in space.
There are some question marks regarding Sutton’s hands, but his sheer size makes this pick impossible to pass up.
Not long ago, we were talking about the 49ers possibly landing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Now they’ve slipped towards the bottom of the top 10. But San Francisco has also won, landing quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in a deadline-deal steal with the New England Patriots. The Niners finished 2017 strong and appear to have their franchise QB for the long run.
With Garoppolo under center, the 49ers need to shift their focus on both protecting him and providing him with offensive weapons.
The first is more important, as the Niners’ interior offensive line play has been poor. So going with Notre Dame offensive guard Quenton Nelson — arguably the best interior linemen we’ve seen in some years — makes more than enough sense.
Related Story: Quenton Nelson makes even more sense with 49ers falling in draft order
Nelson is a road-grading lineman, which would provide up-front protection from Garoppolo and open up head coach Kyle Shanahan’s complex rushing offense.
It’s weird to think Alabama cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick falls out of the top 10, but the previous teams either address offense or have other pressing needs in the NFL Draft thus far.
Either way, this plays right into the Oakland Raiders’ benefit.
General manager Reggie McKenzie needs to spend a lot of his draft capital on the defensive side of the ball this April, and it could be at all three levels.
Armed with a handful of playmakers up front, though, the secondary figures to be a prime location for some help. Fitzpatrick is quite easily the best corner in this class, capable of locking down opponents’ receivers with ease and shutting down an entire side of the field.
That’s exactly what Oakland needs after a disappointing year, defensively and offensively.
The Miami Dolphins could go one of a number of different directions here, but they elect to go with the best available prospect to suit their most important needs in the NFL Draft.
Georgia linebacker Roquan Smith is easily the most explosive playmaker out of front-seven candidates this deep in the draft, and he would help make an aging and increasingly expensive Miami front seven more athletic and cheaper.
Smith’s presence and abilities in coverage should free up the Dolphins’ remaining crop of pass-rushers, such as EDGE Charles Harris, and take pressure off the secondary too.
Combine that with Smith’s prowess against the run, we could easily see the Dolphins one-time highly regarded defense spin back in the right direction.
The Cincinnati Bengals haven’t succeeded in finding young and promising offensive linemen to protect quarterback Andy Dalton and open up things on the ground for running back Joe Mixon.
A major problem exists at offensive tackle, where Cincinnati will be looking for a notable upgrade.
If it weren’t for a knee injury last year, Williams could have easily been a top-five selection in the NFL Draft. Still, he won’t fall much further than this spot, making him an easy pick for a Bengals team in need of help up front.
And with Williams’ balance in both run support and pass protection, his presence should do wonders in getting the Bengals offense back to respectability.
So much of what the Washington Redskins do in the 2018 NFL Draft is predicated on what happens with quarterback Kirk Cousins and the expiration of his franchise tag.
If he’s re-signed, no worries. Cross that off the list. If not, quarterback becomes a major need.
But Washington could use some help in the secondary, particularly at safety, which is why Florida State’s Derwin James makes a lot of sense here. James has the range and converging speed to hold down a free safety spot, while his coverage skills make him perfectly adept to playing cornerback.
Safety is the more pressing area of concern for the Redskins, though, and it’s likely the team looks at James to be that clamp-down defender at the back end of its defense next season.
The Green Bay Packers should probably think defense first in this NFL Draft, but passing on a player like Oklahoma State wide receiver James Washington is too tough to do.
And wideouts need to be included on Green Bay’s wish list anyway. It’s hard to speculate what the future holds for veteran receiver Jordy Nelson, and it’s also possible Randall Cobb is a cap casualty.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is capable of making almost any receiver look good, but the offense would receive a major boost if a player like Washington was added to the mix.
Plus, it’s impossible to overlook the thought of Rodgers — who arguably has the best deep ball in the NFL right now — paired up with Washington, who could be the best deep-ball threat in this draft class.
This would go a long way to getting Green Bay back on track.
From one Cardinals team to another. That’s the story for Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson.
OK, so there are more reasons for Jackson to make his way to Arizona than just a cute name comparison. And most of them center around an aging Cardinals offense that lost veteran QB Carson Palmer (arm) to injured reserve for the second time in four seasons.
Palmer is 38 years old too, and it’s becoming clearer each passing season Arizona needs to replace him.
Jackson is one of the most exciting quarterback prospects in this year’s NFL Draft. I’ve read some NFL scouts aren’t sold on him at all, but he passes my eye test. And with the Cardinals offensive line in need of help, one can hope he’s able to execute the same sort of elusiveness under pressure, similar to what the Seattle Seahawks enjoy with their quarterback, Russell Wilson.
Not saying Jackson is the next Wilson. But he has the tools and traits to be in the same discussion.
The Baltimore Ravens can’t believe LSU running back Derrius Guice fell this far in the NFL Draft and right into their laps.
Passing on Guice would be silly, although one could argue wide receiver should be a bigger priority. Nevertheless, Guice is a game-changer for Baltimore’s offense.
Nothing against their current starting running back, Alex Collins, but he’s not built to be a true three-down tailback. And Guice would probably be a more explosive player anyway.
Adding Guice to the mix would help set the Ravens up to be one of those run-first, defense-heavy teams we associate with Baltimore squads from the last two decades. And that might be the best way for this team to compete in the AFC North, as Guice leads the way on offense.
The Los Angeles Chargers may be able to ride out quarterback Philip Rivers’ effectiveness over the next couple of years, or so, although it would be wise to start thinking about an eventual replacement for the 36-year-old veteran.
If the former is the case, L.A. will want to find some players capable of protecting Rivers next season.
What’s needed is help at offensive tackle. And Notre Dame’s Mike McGlinchey is certainly worth the selection here at No. 16 overall.
McGlinchey’s presence, combined with a healthy return of the Chargers’ second-round pick from a year ago, offensive guard Forrest Lamp, should make the offensive line much more effective than what we saw this season.
And it will help keep Rivers upright too — never a bad thing.
The Seattle Seahawks are going to need a home-run NFL Draft to avoid falling into the pitfalls of lucrative contracts, aging veterans and players leaving via free agency. As Over the Cap’s Jason Fitzgerald noted, “the Seahawks run the risk of becoming a big salary cap mess if the decisions they make this offseason don’t work out.”
Unfortunately, there are a lot of needs on both sides of the ball. Seattle hasn’t been the same since losing running back Marshawn Lynch to retirement, cornerback Richard Sherman is going to be 30 years old and coming off an Achilles injury.
And there are the soon-to-be-hefty contracts too.
But quarterback Russell Wilson has been playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in recent NFL history, and it would be disastrous if he suffered an injury because of lack of protection.
Recent efforts, such as the trade for offensive tackle Duane Brown, helped a bit. But other pickups, notably Germain Ifedi in 2016, have offset any improvements.
Despite a flurry of needs, Seattle goes back to O-line investments, taking Oklahoma’s Orlando Brown Jr., who is about as close to a plug-and-play tackle there is.
The Dallas Cowboys’ efforts to make their defensive front one of the best in the NFL haven’t exactly worked out in recent seasons (thank you, Randy Gregory), and it wouldn’t be a shock to see them go defensive line with their top NFL Draft pick in 2018.
Dallas’ interior could use the biggest boost, and it wouldn’t hurt to supplement this group with an interior pass-rusher like Michigan’s Maurice Hurst.
Hurst, a twitchy and explosive 6-foot-2 presence, has done enough against the run to suggest he can be an every-down player. But it’s his pass-rushing presence that should get scouts excited. His 5.5 sacks and 13 tackles for a loss this year points to him being able to plug a massive hole up front.
And if the Cowboys are able to bring back EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence — a pending free agent — Dallas’ defense would have one of the more promising pass rushes in the conference.
The Detroit Lions would like to add a running back here to balance out the offense and take pressure off quarterback Matthew Stafford.
But there simply are too many needs on the defensive side of the ball, and the team would be wiser to focus up front.
With EDGE Ezekial Ansah set to hit free agency, the Lions look to bolster their pass rush by grabbing Boston College’s Harold Landry at this spot.
Landry’s skill set may be a bit behind that of LSU’s Arden Key or NC State’s Bradley Chubb. But one could make the argument Landry has the highest upside of all three.
Even if Ansah returns, the Lions boasting two elite-level pass-rushers would help tip the balance in the NFC North next season and beyond.
The Tennessee Titans need a bunch of help on defense, and addressing the pass rush should be a No. 1 priority.
Clemson’s Clelin Ferrell is a 6-foot-5, 260-pound EDGE capable of providing some thump in the pass rush, as his 8.5 sacks and 17 tackles for a loss this season suggest.
Ferrell is also versatile enough to play in either a 3-4 or 4-3 base front, which would give Tennessee the option to move on from veteran outside linebacker Brian Orakpo, who might end up being a cap casualty this offseason anyway.
An ACC scout told me Clemson defensive tackle Christian Wilkins might be the most-balanced interior defender in this year’s NFL Draft class, notably based off his ability to rush the passer and handle his own against the run.
And at 6-foot-4 and 310 pounds, that’s a pretty scary thought.
The Buffalo Bills need help along the interior of their defensive line. With Marcel Dareus now with the Jacksonville Jaguars, a run-stuffing DT with pass-rushing skills should be the top priority.
Dareus primarily lined up as a 5-technique defensive end, although his lack of edge speed probably means he’s best suited along the interior.
And that would be perfect for head coach Sean McDermott and Co.
The Atlanta Falcons and veteran defensive tackle Dontari Poe could be parting ways this offseason, which would leave a pretty sizable void along the interior of the defense.
Atlanta has invested pretty heavily in their defensive front in recent seasons, but what’s needed is a piece that could bring those acquisitions together.
Enter Florida State’s Derrick Nnandi.
Nandi, a three-year starter for the Seminoles, is the epitome of a short, stubby defensive tackle. At 6-foot-1 and 312 pounds, it’s odd to think he has some nice pass-rushing moves from the interior. But he does.
He won’t be able to carry the Falcons defensive line. But with Vic Beasley and Takkarist McKinley assuming those duties, Nnadi would be a solid option here.
Offensive line should be a top priority for the Carolina Panthers in the NFL Draft, especially if offensive guard Andrew Norwell leaves via free agency.
But an upgrade over offensive tackle Matt Kalil would be smarter. Especially considering some of the many bad moments he’s had this season.
Some of the top-tier offensive linemen are off the boards at this point in the draft. But Carolina could find some value by tabbing Western Michigan’s Chukwuma Okorafor at this spot. Earlier this season, Okorafor might have been viewed as a raw, needing-development prospect likely destined for the middle of Round 2.
But a strong 2017 helped push Okorafor into the first round, likely due to his improvements in pass protection.
A year ago at this time, all of us would have guaranteed a month’s pay the Jacksonville Jaguars would use their first pick in the NFL Draft on a quarterback.
Simply put, Blake Bortles wasn’t the long-term answer.
Bortles has found some success this season, though, as Jacksonville has switched to a run-first, defensive-heavy squad. And it’s working.
Quarterback could still be a need, depending on how Bortles performs under postseason pressure. But if the Jaguars still view him as “the guy,” giving him some bona fide weapons would be smart.
Alabama’s Calvin Ridley is a nice receiving option this late in the first round. Perhaps not as touted as some of the higher-profile wideouts, Ridley’s skill set would be beneficial to what Bortles is comfortable doing under center.
With their second of two picks in Round 1 of the NFL Draft, the Bills use this selection from the Kansas City Chiefs to grab their quarterback of the future, Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph.
The why has less to do with apparent need and more from what we’ve seen head coach Sean McDermott do this season.
The incumbent, Tyrod Taylor, is signed through 2018. And while that still opens up the possibility of him being around next year, McDermott’s swapping out of Taylor for rookie QB Nathan Peterman suggests the coaching staff isn’t sold on Taylor at all moving forward.
Even if Peterman’s lone start was about as ugly as it could get.
Rudolph might not have had the best of finishes to his 2017 campaing, which has likely caused his NFL Draft stock to fall a bit.
But that’s no problem for Buffalo. McDermott can ride things out with Taylor next season if he likes, giving Rudolph some time to develop.
The Los Angeles Rams offense is finally clicking under head coach Sean McVay, and there aren’t too many upgrades there to worry about.
And while the defense is looking good enough under defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, there are some pressing needs in the secondary. Especially at cornerback.
L.A. placed the franchise tag on veteran corner Trumaine Johnson. If he doesn’t return, the Rams should spend their first selection on a solid corner. And Ohio State’s Denzel Ward could easily be that guy.
At 5-foot-10 and 191 pounds, Ward is probably best suited for nickel duties. He’s not the biggest ballhawk of the bunch. But his 15 passes defended in 2017 suggest he’s more than capable getting in the mix with receivers on the inside.
You might remember the New Orleans Saints were about to land former Alabama linebacker Reuben Foster at the tail end of Round 1 in last year’s NFL Draft.
Only to see the 49ers trade up and grab him a spot earlier.
The Saints follow Foster’s pedigree, though, electing to grab his former teammate, Rashaan Evans late in Round 1. Evans was overshadowed last year by Foster, but the 6-foot-3, 234 pounder logging a career-high 57 tackles, five sacks and 10.5 tackles for a loss.
Like Foster, Evans is solid in coverage and is an asset against the run as well.
While the Saints have shown some dramatic improvement, defensively, they could still use a solid coverage linebacker at the second level.
Evans provides just that.
Let’s all hope Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Ryan Shazier is able to return healthy from his horrendous back injury suffered earlier this season.
Either way, the Steelers could stand for some additional help here at the second level. Especially if Shazier’s void is exposed during the playoffs.
Texas linebacker Malik Jefferson has the flexibility to line up at any linebacker spot. In a 3-4, he’s best suited for interior play, while I’d see him as a 4-3 WILL at the next level. His coverage skills are good enough, for sure, but his ability to make plays against the run is what’s truly enticing. Making plays in space is more of his forte anyway.
Simply put, Jefferson’s 110 tackles in 2017 means he’s a pure tackling machine, and the Steelers could benefit from someone like that on defense.
The Minnesota Vikings don’t need a lot of help this offseason, especially on defense, which means they can focus more on depth pieces and long-term investments.
Part of their NFL Draft efforts should focus on bulking up the offensive line, which already went through some modifications last offseason.
Still, there is room for more.
UCLA offensive tackle Kolton Miller might be something of an under-the-radar prospect, considering how bad his team’s O-line was in 2017. Yet the 6-foot-8, 310-pound Miller was one of the few bright spots here and has all the intangibles scouts want to see for a blindside blocker.
Pass protection? No problem. Run support? Equally as good.
As long as Miller has a strong NFL Scouting Combine, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him slip into the tail end of Round 1.
The Philadelphia Eagles’ season-ending loss of veteran left tackle Jason Peters should make offensive line a priority in the NFL Draft.
But value isn’t exactly a thing here, meaning the Eagles likely shift their focus to other areas.
Philly’s secondary could still use a bit of work, and Colorado cornerback Isaiah Oliver is a nice find at the tail end of Round 1. At 6-foot-1 and 195 pounds, he has the physical makeup desired at the NFL level and has already displayed quality shutdown capabilities necessary to play the position as a pro.
A smaller-school pedigree might be keeping Oliver from climbing higher on this list. But his 12 passes broken up this season are a nice sign he’s more than adept getting between opponents’ quarterbacks and their receiving targets.
The Patriots managed to figure out their early season defensive woes in the second half, but they should still spend their first pick addressing this side of the ball.
Cornerback could be a top priority, especially if Malcolm Smith leaves in free agency. But one could make the argument a true edge-bending pass-rusher is more important.
More from Niner Noise
- 49ers 2023 NFL Draft tracker: Pick-by-pick news and analysis
- Predicting 49ers NFL Draft picks by looking at final mocks
- DraftKings NFL Draft Promo – Win $150 Guaranteed on Any $5 Bet
- 2023 NFL Draft: EDGE Byron Young could be impact player for 49ers
- 5 low-key NFL Draft options for 49ers who are flying under the radar
I’ve seen some big boards listing Oklahoma EDGE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo as a top-20 prospect, which would make this pick at No. 31 quite valuable. Indeed, Okoronkwo’s 17 sacks the last two seasons, including eight this year, would be a nice addition to a Pats team lacking a pure pass-rusher.
In turn, this would ease any pressure off New England’s secondary, allowing head coach Bill Belichick to target lesser-known corners later in the NFL Draft.
We hope you enjoyed Niner Noise’s latest NFL Draft mock. And if you’re not sure of the selection or think the draft will go differently, please chime in on the comments section.
Next: These 5 teams need a quarterback the most in 2018
Oh, and Happy New Year too!