Matchups are key to winning fantasy football games. Stud players can flop and virtual unknowns can flourish at any time. You just have to be able to judge all the variables involved.
Every week some of the most talent players get shut down because of difficulty one-on-one defenders.
Big name players with a tough matchup underperform. Key injuries can turn bad matchups into great fantasy value in an instant.
And that lead should us to our 2017 week one start-em or sit-em list.
Start-em: Jameis Winston (TB) vs. Miami
Quarterback Jameis Winston has done nothing but impress in his young career and 2017 is going to be no different. Winston has thrown for over 4,000 yards in each of his first two seasons.
Tampa Bay is going to score a lot of points, and that starts Week 1 verses the Miami Dolphins.
Wide receivers Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson are matchup nightmares, and the Dolphins cornerbacks are not the group to stop them.
Tampa Bay will be without its top running back, Doug Martin, for three weeks due to suspension. This means more throws for Winston against a bottom-tier defensive back group for Miami.
Winston is a top option at quarterback this week. Put him in your lineups and watch the fantasy points roll in.
More options: Carson Wentz (PHI) vs. Washington and Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs. Cleveland
Sit-em: Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. Giants
I’m not one to believe in the sophomore slump. The second-year quarterback in Dallas might start to believe after Week 1.
Dak Prescott is going up against a tough New York Giants defense to start the season. The Giants defense held Prescott to under 225 yards in their two matchups last year.
With Dallas not being able to lean on star running back Ezekiel Elliot for the first six games, due to his suspension, Prescott is going to have to run the show for owner Jerry Jones’ team. What made Prescott so effective last season was Dallas’ dual-threat offense keeping defenses off balance.
Without Elliot, Dallas becomes much more one dimensional. That is not the kind of quarterback Prescott is at this point in his career. The Cowboys are going to have a rough string of games without their running back, and it stats in Week 1.
More options: Marcus Mariota (TEN) vs. Oakland and Brian Hoyer (SF) vs. Carolina
Start-em: Ameer Abdullah (DET) vs. Cardinals
Running back Ameer Abdullah is healthy right now, and you need to take advantage of that.
Abdullah seems to always be hurt. But until that happens, he is the lead back and needs to be treated by fantasy football players like one.
Abdullah played a game and a quarter to start last season, and looked like he was finally going to bring balance to the Detroit Lions offense. Big plays in the passing game look good, but running the ball with Abdullah will be the way Detroit wins games in 2017. The coaching staff knows this and fantasy football players should too.
The strength of the Arizona Cardinals defense is in a daunting secondary headed by Patrick Peterson and Tyron Mathieu. Detroit doesn’t have the playmakers on the outside to consistently beat them which means the workload is going to fall on Abdullah.
Running the ball with Abdullah is how Detroit wins Week 1. That means Abdullah — I said how fantasy football owners win Week 1 too.
More options: Todd Gurley (LAR) vs. Indianapolis and Devonta Freeman (ATL) vs. Chicago
Sit-em: Mike Gillislee (NE) vs. Chiefs
Head coach Bill Belichick is always a wild card for fantasy football players. Without LeGarrette Blount in the backfield this season, no one really knows who the true lead back is in New England.
Mike Gillislee is the only back on the current roster that has the body type to withstand a heavy workload. That being said, he has never been a feature back. He performed very well, when given his chances as LeSean McCoy’s backup in Buffalo, but those opportunities were scarce.
Also add him needing to learn a new offense, and a complicated one at that. Gillislee may have a good year for the Patriots, but tempering expectations for Week 1 is a smart move.
Belichick recently praised all five of the Patriots running backs. That doesn’t exactly bode well for fantasy owners. Successful fantasy football running backs get guaranteed touches and, until he proves that, he will be on my bench.
More options: Jordan Howard (CHI) vs. Atlanta and Frank Gore (IND) vs. LA Rams
Start-em: Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) vs. 49ers
Wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin had a very up-and-down season last year and is looking for a bounce back in 2017. He has a good chance of starting strong against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1.
The strength of the 49ers is in their defensive line and linebackers, but their secondary play is very questionable at this point. There is no cornerback on the 49ers roster to match up with Benjamin’s size or speed.
Part of the reason for his down year a season ago was due to some nagging injuries. All accounts out of Carolina say he is healthy and he has performed well enough in the preseason for me to agree.
With the new weapons on offense around him, Benjamin is going to be difficult to focus in on for the 49ers defense. Expect Panthers quarterback Cam Newton to find him early and often.
With his size, red-zone targets are always going to be there, and that means touchdowns. Touchdown equal fantasy football points. That’s why he is a must start for the Panthers Week 1.
More options: Jamison Crowder (WAS) vs. Philadelphia and Julio Jones (ATL) vs. Chicago
Sit-em: Sammy Watkins (LAR) vs. Colts
Sammy Watkins showed very brief flashes of excellence in Buffalo, but never put it all together.
This offseason’s trade to the Rams isn’t going to help him regain fantasy football relevance either. Having to face Seattle’s “Legion of Boom” and Arizona’s Patrick Peterson twice a year is a tough task for even the best wideouts.
Watkins has only played a full season once in his three years in the NFL. Last season, he missed half the year with an injury that was thought at the start to only last a few weeks.
Learning new offense in a shortened training camp is hard. Then realizing the offense you are learning is one where running the ball is the main goal. Then realizing your starting quarterback is Jared Goff.
Watkins is not only a player I’d avoid in Week 1 verse the Colts, but one I’d avoid until he shows he is back to full health.
More options: Allen Robinson (JAX) vs. Houston and Jarvis Landry (MIA) vs. Tampa Bay
Start-em: Austin Hooper (ATL) vs. Bears
Austin Hooper is a tight end I fully expect to surprise people in 2017. Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons need to find ways to get him the ball.
Hooper is entering his second season in the NFL and finished 2016 strong. In his last eight games, and three playoff games, he had 19 catches for 183 yards and three touchdowns — all as the backup tight end.
He is no longer a backup.
The Falcons are going to score points this season, just like last, and Hooper will be right in the middle of it.
The Chicago defense is not what it once was, and Hooper can exploit the middle of the field for some big plays. Week 1 is the perfect time to do it. Grab him in your league if he’s available, because I don’t think he will be much longer.
More options: Jordan Reed (WAS) vs. Philadelphia
Sit-em: Eric Ebron (DET) vs. Cardinals
Like I said about running back Ameer Abdullah, the Lions are going to try and be a more balanced offense this season. Eric Ebron is going to have decreased role, and that starts Week 1.
Ebron is a very talented tight end. But this matchup and new team philosophy hurt him immensely. The Arizona Cardinals defense is loaded at safety and linebacker. Ebron isn’t going to get soft coverage all game.
Just this week in training camp, Ebron landed on the injury report with a bad hamstring. He should be available to play Sunday, but if he is anything less than 100 percent, I won’t feel comfortable starting him in my fantasy football league. Expect Marvin Jones and Golden Tate to do most of the receiving this week.
Ebron is going to be a key piece to the Detroit offense all season. But with a tough matchup and a questionable hamstring, I’m sitting Ebron Week 1.
More options: Julius Thomas (MIA) vs. Tampa Bay
Start-em: Houston Texans Defense/Special Teams vs. Jaguars
Blake Bortles or Chad Henne? Doesn’t matter. Jacksonville’s quarterback situation is scary.
Texans defenders J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus will destroy anyone the Jaguars throw out there. They combine for one of the best defensive units as a whole and their front seven on defense is almost certainly the best in the NFL.
Bortles is a walking “pick six,” and Henne is a walking 3-and-out. Running back Leonard Fournette is the Jaguars’ only hope on offense to slow down the pass rush of Houston.
A rookie making his first start in the NFL isn’t going to scare me away from this juicy matchup for the Texans defense.
More options: Carolina Panthers D/ST vs. San Francisco
Sit-em: New England Defense vs. Chiefs
New England does have a great defense this season, but they draw a tough matchup Week 1. Kansas City is going to give them all they can handle in the season kickoff game on Thursday.
The Patriots are always good at shutting down the other team’s best offensive weapon. The problem is, the Chiefs have three or four of those weapons.
Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt; they couldn’t possible stop all three, right? Kansas City seems to always give New England trouble, and Week 1 of 2017 is more of the same.
Next: Top fantasy football wide receiver sleepers in 2017
More options: Miami Dolphins Defense vs. Tampa Bay