Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins is likely going to hit the NFL free-agent market in 2018, although here’s why he won’t land with the San Francisco 49ers a year from now.
Before being slapped with the franchise tag, Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins was tied to a possible reunion with San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan — the one-time coordinator who had a lot to do with Cousins’ drafting back in 2012.
Earlier this week, a report from ESPN’s John Keim stated Cousins and the Redskins were far away from a long-term deal. And the deadline to make such a deal is July 17.
Naturally, this has prompted the idea Cousins hits the free-agent market in 2018 and would likely be one of the highest paid quarterbacks to be targeted.
With aforementioned ties to San Francisco, it only makes sense Shanahan and Co. would be interested, right?
Not so fast.
Granted, there are those who would welcome Cousins into the Niners ranks in 2018. If it happens, and Cousins ends up thriving in Santa Clara, I’d be the first person to admit I was wrong.
But even though the 49ers are likely going to be in the market for a franchise-type QB next year, here’s why Cousins won’t be the answer.
Kirk Cousins’ Stats versus Film
On the surface, Kirk Cousins’ career numbers would suggest the Niners would be landing a perfect weapon to helm the offense.
Two years ago, Cousins led the NFL with a 69.8 completion percentage and had 4,166 passing yards, 29 touchdowns and a passer rating of 101.6. Last year, while not quite as dominant, Cousins earned a Pro Bowl nod and had a 67.0 percentage, 4,917-yard, 25-touchdown and 97.2 passer-rating line.
Football Outsiders’ Cian Fahey wrote an interesting article about Cousins back in 2016, highlighting some of the notable issues with Cousins’ game.
Just take a look at some tendencies not necessarily reflected in the common stats:
It’s important to note these interceptable passes, not shown in standard stats, are thrown with relatively clean pockets.
And Fahey elaborates more, citing some of the real problems:
"As a weak-armed passer, Cousins can’t throw with precision downfield. He has to force passes more to get them there on time, which takes away from his placement. … Cousins was propped up by the talent around him and the absence of talent across from him. To what degree and for how long this is sustainable is unclear."
Two of Cousins’ favorite receivers in Washington, DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, are no longer at his disposal.
While Garcon’s offseason signing with the Niners might make a Cousins-to-San Francisco deal seem smart, Fahey also pointed out how these two weren’t exactly on the same page last year either. Especially in the red zone:
We’ll get a better idea what Cousins will look like without these two prolific receivers this season. If he continues on an upward trend, a signing by the Niners might make a bit more sense. But any regression, which wouldn’t be surprising, could raise some red flags.
Cousins may be a better option under center than what San Francisco will field in 2017. But considering the likely financial obligations, is it truly worth the move?
Speaking of the money…
Financial Implications for the 49ers
The 49ers have the luxury of being $66,872,779 over the salary cap this season — tops in the NFL, according to Over the Cap.
So big spending shouldn’t be too much a concern for general manager John Lynch and chief contract negotiator Paraag Marathe.
But what would Kirk Cousins stand to make on the open market?
San Francisco 49ers
According to Spotrac.com’s market-value tool, the quarterback would be worth something around a four-year, $95.13 million deal — an average yearly salary of nearly $24 million. That might not be a big deal in 2018 or even 2019, but the long-term implications could cause some issues.
San Francisco will have to start thinking about up-and-coming players like defensive end DeForest Buckner, whose fifth-year option could be picked up for 2020. Cornerback Rashard Robinson is set to be a free agent that year. And if his upward trend continues, re-signing him could be tough, to say the least.
And what happens in 2021? This year’s draft picks — Ahkello Witherspoon, Joe Williams, George Kittle and Trent Taylor — will be up for new deals, and the same could be said of first rounders Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster if fifth-year deals aren’t picked up.
The numbers are too wild and far off to predict right now. But Cousins would likely eat up a full 12 percent of a likely $200 million salary cap.
It would work right now, but things get difficult if the newest crop of Niners players work out nicely.
Even if that happens, it’s likely at least a year before San Francisco is remotely sniffing a playoff spot.
Which brings us to the next reason why the Niners don’t sign Cousins — the rebuild project’s time length.
The 49ers Won’t Be Competitive for the First Half of Kirk Cousins’ Contract
Assuming a four-year deal is what’s coming Cousins’ way, we can try to match up the quarterback’s fit over the course of San Francisco’s ongoing rebuild.
Yes, general manager John Lynch put forth a great effort getting the team’s reconstruction started. But it’s going to take time.
Remember those film clips of Kirk Cousins missing receivers with a relatively clear pocket?
A year ago, Football Outsiders ranked the Redskins offensive line No. 3 in pass protection. Back in 2015, this same group came in 10th. But by comparison, the 49ers finished 31st and 30th in 2015 and 2016, respectively.
San Francisco made relatively few changes to its O-line this offseason, aside from trading for center Jeremy Zuttah and signing a handful of merely OK-at-best free agents (Tim Barnes, Brandon Fusco and Garry Gilliam).
The Niners O-line may wind up being slightly improved by 2018, but we shouldn’t expect a major jump to protect a quarterback like Cousins.
And these tweets should tell you what one might expect:
About five QBs in the league can reset off pressure and consistently make that throw. Kirk Cousins has never been one of those guys.
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 2, 2017
Kirk Cousins was only under pressure on 8 of 53 dropbacks. 126.1 QB Rating without pressure, 57.8 QB Rating with pressure.
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) November 25, 2016
Forget receiving weapons, which are lacking in San Francisco right now. The lack of an established O-line — which will take time to build — means Cousins won’t be anything close to the kind of numbers he generated in Washington.
Again, worth the big contract? Probably not.
49ers Will Find a Quarterback in the NFL Draft Instead
While signing Kirk Cousins to a long-term deal would solve one of San Francisco’s pressing needs in 2018, it’s important to remember he’ll turn 29 years old this August and would be 30 years old by the time next year starts.
True, some elite QBs hold onto elite-level careers well into their 30s. But those are the rarities. And if we grant the 49ers aren’t going to be competing for a playoff berth until 2019 at the earliest, we can see how there’s a bit of an age mismatch.
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It’s possible, perhaps likely, the Niners wind up with a top-five pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Unlike this year, the 2018 draft is supposed to be laden with NFL-caliber quarterbacks.
The more plausible plan would be for San Francisco to use it’s current quarterback, Brian Hoyer, as a bridge to the next signal-caller — a mentor of sorts to find someone who can take over the franchise’s offense in 2019 and do so at a young age.
A young core would then be able to maturate together.
Sure, there are plenty of factors that could change between now and the start of 2018 free agency. Cousins could hit a real regression this season, which would assuredly lower his price tag significantly.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan could be stout about bringing Cousins in regardless of the financial woes and fully expect to bring out the best in the quarterback’s game.
We don’t know.
Next: 2017 NFL quarterback power rankings
But if I had to place my bet, I’d go with the Niners targeting someone other than Cousins in 2018.