San Francisco 49ers edge rusher Aaron Lynch has already been the topic of much speculation this offseason, so let’s look at each possible scenario for him in 2017.
The San Francisco 49ers appeared to have struck gold by nabbing former South Florida linebacker Aaron Lynch in Round 5 of the 2014 NFL Draft.
His rookie season resulted in six sacks, followed up by 6.5 the following year.
And yet Lynch’s 2016 campaign was marred by weight questions, a four-game suspension to start the year and injuries to conclude what was otherwise a disappointing campaign.
Lynch posted a mere 1.5 sacks last season for a Niners defense that sorely missed anything resembling an exterior pass rush.
Enter 2017, a new coaching staff and yet another slew of question marks facing Lynch.
Earlier this offseason, the Santa Rosa Press Democrat’s Grant Cohn reported Lynch showed up to minicamp about 20 pounds overweight. His argument was backed up by this 49ers promo, in which a massive Lynch is seen a few seconds in:
Lynch later said he was weighing in at about 280 pounds, but the team wants him in the 260 range, per Chris Biderman of Niners Wire.
With the Niners installing a 4-3 base defense this season, speculation has ranged from Lynch being the starting LEO defensive end all the way to not making the roster at all.
Let’s look at each scenario and try to predict what ultimately happens with the talented-yet-underachieving pass-rusher.
No. 1: Aaron Lynch Starts at LEO
Without getting too deep into the Xs and Os, base formations and nickel packages, let’s first explore the notion Lynch actually winds up being the team’s starter at LEO.
San Francisco 49ers
The LEO position, of course, is the right defensive end in a hybrid-like system the 49ers will employ under defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. It’s reserved for the team’s best pass-rusher, and Lynch is about as prototypical as it gets for this role.
In base formations, however, the LEO may be subject to more running plays. According to Pro Football Focus, defending against the run isn’t exactly a top strength for Lynch. He posted a mere 44.4 run-stopping grade in 2016.
San Francisco does have some other options here to consider.
Chief among them are Arik Armstead and Elvis Dumervil, whom the Niners signed just a few days ago.
Armstead isn’t particularly good against the run either, and Dumervil — 33 years old — may be best equipped to be a situational pass-rusher at this point in his career.
So, by default, Lynch could be the primary guy to set the edge and see the lion’s share of snaps at this position.
It’s not ideal though. Lynch has never been a true every-down player, and his weight concerns may spill over into the regular season.
No. 2: Aaron Lynch Swaps to SAM Linebacker
This is a bit more of an out-of-the-box thought.
Currently, the 49ers are pegging veteran Ahmad Brooks as the SAM, or strong-side, linebacker for 2017. SAM linebackers frequently are asked to cover tight ends and offer some pass rush from the opposite side of the line from the LEO.
It’s not Lynch’s natural position, although his body type — if he can get his weight down — is enough to suggest he can handle coverage duties.
Pro Football Focus backs this up as well, as Lynch’s pass-coverage grade (69.2) was only slightly lower than Brooks’ (72.4).
The thing to consider with Brooks is he is 33 years old, and his best playing days are long behind him. Lynch, on the other hand, is only 24 years old and just hitting what would be the prime of his career.
Moving positions — and entering a platoon role with Brooks — would require some adjustment, and who knows if Lynch would be up for the task.
But with a bit of a logjam at LEO, the thought of maximizing Lynch’s on-field potential and impact, especially as an eventual replacement for Brooks, is somewhat enticing.
No. 3: 49ers Use Aaron Lynch as a Situational Pass-Rusher
As noted earlier, the 49ers have three likable candidates from the LEO position — Aaron Lynch, Arik Armstead and Elvis Dumervil.
Four, if one counts Tank Carradine.
Teams can never have too many pass-rushers, so it’s not necessarily a bad thing to have too many players available off the edge.
Considering Lynch’s motor has never been top tier, a plausible solution would be to employ him as a situational pass-rusher in obvious passing downs. Just over 44 percent of his total snaps last season were in passing situations, so one might expect that number to increase in 2017 if he’s used this way.
As part of the rotation, the Niners may try to work Armstead in as the team’s primary run defender off the edge. It’s not ideal, far from it, but Armstead’s nagging shoulder injury from a year ago shouldn’t be a problem entering this season. Let’s see if that makes a difference.
Dumervil may wind up being the primary third-down pass-rusher, leaving Lynch to handle passing situations in between and against nickel formations.
No. 4: Aaron Lynch Doesn’t Even Make the 49ers Roster
This notion goes back to Grant Cohn’s report, which was interpreted by Pro Football Talk saying Aaron Lynch may not even make the 49ers’ 53-man roster.
It’s possible when one connects the dots.
General manager John Lynch has stressed, on more than one occasion, the need for his players to be 100 percent dedicated to football. Showing up overweight, especially in a contract year, isn’t exactly the right way to prove to his new regime Aaron Lynch is totally dedicated.
Therefore it wouldn’t have been a shock to see San Francisco’s top brass come down hard on Lynch or, possibly, part ways with him.
Although it appears as if the Niners are staying in Lynch’s corner for now.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan pointed out Lynch, despite his weight issues, still has the support from San Francisco’s coaching staff (h/t Rob Lowder of Niners Wire):
Shanahan on Aaron Lynch: "There's no doubt Aaron is going in the right direction for us. We challenged him during the offseason." #49ers
— Rob Lowder (@Rob_Lowder) May 23, 2017
This is good, but it’s also just the start.
If Lynch fails to make the necessary changes, the only penalty to San Francisco releasing him would be a mere $49,500 in dead money.
The Likeliest Scenario
San Francisco is going through some major transformations on the defensive side of the ball, and ensuring the pass rush stays potent is just as important as ever.
2014 and 2015 revealed Lynch’s potential. He is talented, and there’s no questioning that.
Only the questions surrounding his work ethic and dedication remain, and those aforementioned weight issues will continue to follow Lynch until, well, they don’t.
Lynch’s issues defending against the run probably eliminate him from being a base, every-down defender this season. And the addition of Elvis Dumervil could negate the need for Lynch to be the primary third-down pass-rusher as well.
More from Niner Noise
- 49ers 2023 NFL Draft tracker: Pick-by-pick news and analysis
- Predicting 49ers NFL Draft picks by looking at final mocks
- DraftKings NFL Draft Promo – Win $150 Guaranteed on Any $5 Bet
- 2023 NFL Draft: EDGE Byron Young could be impact player for 49ers
- 5 low-key NFL Draft options for 49ers who are flying under the radar
So, most likely, the 49ers employ Lynch as a situational pass-rusher this season. They’ll hope he can replicate the same numbers seen from his first two years at the pro level.
Cutting him is still a very real possibility, but the Niners could have easily gone this route earlier if they felt the need was there.
Instead, Lynch has the opportunity to prove himself again.
Next: New-look predictions for the 49ers roster in 2017
San Francisco is hoping he does.