If the 49ers Go Running Back in the First Round, Who Should They Take?
By JD Leidy
Receiving
As the NFL continues to morph into a pass-first league, increased emphasis is being placed on backs’ receiving ability.
Given that the trio of backs in question each had a three-year collegiate career, perhaps the easiest way to evaluate their receiving ability is to simply look at total receptions:
Of course, some of these numbers are scheme-dependent.
And catching the ball is one thing, but what one does with it afterwards is even more telling:
So, Fournette tops the average-yards-per-reception (AYR) list. However, as the famous quote by Mark Twain goes, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.”
In this case, a quick look behind Fournette’s stats reveals that his AYR is significantly elevated by his freshman campaign, where he had a mere seven receptions for 127 yards or an eye-popping 18.8 AYR. During the following two seasons, his AYR is a respectable, but somewhat more mundane, 11.7.
Reshuffling the table to account for Fournette’s somewhat deceptive freshman year stats reveals the following revised rankings:
Granted the numbers are the numbers, and reasonable people could argue that excluding Fournette’s freshman receptions is a statistical manipulation in its own right.
However, returning to the eyeball test used earlier to fill in the blanks in the Strength category, both Cook and McCaffrey appear to be more prolific receivers than Fournette during their college careers.
McCaffrey, in particular, with his 1,200-plus yards through the air, demonstrated remarkable versatility. At Stanford, McCaffrey was the primary receiver on many routes, often catching balls deep in the secondary. Cook and Fournette, on the other hand, were used predominantly in screens and outlet plays.
Perhaps most telling is the relative number of receiving touchdowns of each of the three backs:
McCaffrey is the No. 1 receiving threat in this group. In fact, according to Fox Sports analyst Joe Klatt, he may be as high as the fourth best pure receiver in the entire draft. Whether out of the backfield or in the slot, he could be the aerial menace the 49ers need to terrorize opposing defenses.