Which four players on the San Francisco 49ers stand a good chance of struggling under first year head coach Chip Kelly? Find out here!
Yesterday, we took a look at five players on the San Francisco 49ers who could have breakout seasons or, at least, improve the quality of the offense in head coach Chip Kelly’s system. Today, we look at four players (really six, but more on that soon) who could struggle under Kelly.
I have broken up the first two into two players apiece and, for purposes of this article, the right guard and right tackle positions are combined because it was not easy to determine who would be worse off after watching film on each player — especially with the roster shifts during organized team activities and minicamp and the way these players were reported to perform.
Kelly’s offense requires speed and tempo and, therefore, precision to make it run. This next set of players, for whatever reason — be it poor blocking or dropped passes — are going to be under the microscope, and their recent OTAs and minicamp performances suggest as much.
Next: Right Side of the O-Line -- Tackle
ENTIRE RIGHT SIDE OF THE OFFENSIVE LINE – THE RIGHT TACKLES ERIK PEARS AND TRENT BROWN
After much thinking about it, I’ve decided to include the entire right side of the offensive line as the weakest link for the 49ers.
Last season the 49ers suffered from some of the worst offensive line play in recent memory, finishing 32nd in run blocking and 31st in pass protection, per Football Outsiders. The strength of the offensive line was the left side anchored by Alex Boone and Joe Staley. However, the right side was a virtual swinging door of players as the 49ers desperately tried to find the right combination of players to shore up that part of the line.
At the start of organized team activities (OTAs), Erik Pears and Brandon Thomas were penciled in as the right tackle and right guard, respectively, but by the end of minicamp, Trent Brown and Andrew Tiller were taking first team reps.
ERIK PEARS
Pears was ranked as the 73rd best guard, per the Pro Football Focus player grades. To be honest, 73 is sort of high for a right tackle, whom opposing defense routinely put on skates.
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(GIFS: NFL GamePass)
TRENT BROWN
Brown finished the season as the starter right tackle and looked mostly competent in the process, which is not saying much about the guy he replaced.
Physically, Brown (6-foot–8, 355 pounds) does not fit the profile of a Kelly offensive lineman. The linemen who were on the Eagles’ season-opening roster during each of his three seasons in Philadelphia, per Ourlads.com’s archived depth charts, averaged about 306 pounds.
Kelly’s zone-based scheme, combined with the up-tempo pace, puts a premium on athleticism for offensive lineman. And unsurprisingly, Brown ranked among the worst linemen athletically at his respective position, according to the data from MockDraftable.com:
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Brown frequently struggled in the zone-blocking scheme, struggling to get to his zone and and tripping over his own feet. Brown also struggled with conditioning last year and this year during OTAs and minicamp.
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Next: Right Side of the O-Line -- Guard
ENTIRE RIGHT SIDE OF THE OFFENSIVE LINE – THE RIGHT GUARDS ANDREW TILLER AND BRANDON THOMAS
ANDREW TILLER
Right guard Andrew Tiller is in the same boat as Brown. He’s about 20 pounds bigger than a typical guard in Kelly’s offense and he struggled frequently in space when the 49ers ran zone.
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(GIF: NFL GamePass, Tiller, RG #61)
He was acquired while Jim Harbaugh was still the coach and fits the mold of a Harbaugh power-scheme guard rather than a Kelly zone -scheme guard. His draft profile ranks him quite low, athletically, compared to other guards in his draft.
Tiller only faced a few top pass-rushing teams (Seattle and Arizona) and still did not finish with a spectacular pass-rushing grade. And that Bears game where the offensive line played well? That team’s defense ranked 29th overall, and 32nd against the run, based on DVOA.
BRANDON THOMAS
The 49ers drafted Brandon Thomas in the 2014 draft and quickly earned a spot on the Trent Baalke “All-ACL team.” He has made zero contributions to the team in two years. In 2015, he played in all four preseason games but did not play a single down all season. He was inactive for 15 games and active for Week 5 but did not play.
It turns out that he was battling a high ankle sprain, and this may have factored into the decision by the team to sit him all year. During OTAs, Thomas was only elevated to the first team at right guard due to an absent Joshua Garnett, who was finishing school at the time according to the Mercury News’ Cam Inman. By the end of OTAs, Thomas was replaced by Tiller on the first team but by the end of minicamp, Thomas had returned to right guard on the first team.
At this point, it’s uncertain what will happen with Thomas going forward, but this just adds uncertainty to an already talent deficient offensive line. The addition of rookie Josh Garnett also does not bode well for the third-year player out of Clemson.
OFFENSIVE LINE OUTLOOK
While the offensive line did perform better late in the season, that is most likely due to the schedule and not some kind of dramatic improvement. The 49ers went from having one of the league’s toughest schedules in the first half of the season, to a league-average schedule in the second half.
Currently, Pears is projected as the starter at right tackle over Trent Brown and rookie Fahn Cooper.
A lot can happen between now and the end of training camp, but the deficiencies on the right side of the offensive line, combined with the relative lack athleticism typically seen in a Chip Kelly offensive line don’t bode well for a number of players. Fortunately Kelly is kind of an offensive genius and should be able to scheme adjustments to keep the offense moving.
Next: Quinton Patton
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QUINTON PATTON
Quinton Patton has had an interesting career so far in San Francisco, and one could certainly point to a number of justifications for keeping him around. After Torrey Smith, the wide receiver depth chart is wide open and ripe for the taking among the rest of the group. Patton will have just as much opportunity to secure a roster spot as anyone else.
Ask yourself this question: What value does he offer that other receivers in the group do not? He lacks the speed that Smith has to threaten a defense vertically and he is not as athletic as Bruce Ellington in space.
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(Image and GIF: NFL GamePass)
At 6-foot-0 and 204 pounds, he also lacks the size to be a dominant threat from the slot, as Chip Kelly relies on the larger receiver/tight-end guys to fill those roles.
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Ellington may be the smaller of the two, but Kelly’s offense puts a premium on athletic players who can become “space players.”
(Image: www.mockdraftable.com)
Patton is entering the final year of his rookie contract, which means that with a 2016 cap hit of only $772,875, per OverTheCap.com. He’s also cheap. I would be surprised if Patton did not make the roster, but it’s unlikely he contributes in any significant way and he likely will not be back next season.
As far as his OTA/minicamp performance, he struggled with catching the ball and did not show any dramatic improvement.
Oh. And there is this:
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(Image: NFL GamePass)
Next: Vance McDonald
VANCE MCDONALD
Vance McDonald completed his third season emerging as the No. 1 tight end by the end of the season and, after Vernon Davis was traded, he was penciled in ahead of Garrett Celek, who suffered a season-ending injury, and Blake Bell, who was playing his first real snaps as a tight end.
McDonald is in the final year of his rookie contract, with a cap number of $1,145,193. It’s unlikely he’ll be back in a 49ers uniform next season with Celek’s new contract and second-year player Bell fighting for the tight end roles.
McDonald has not helped himself either along the way, capping off 2015 with a career drop rate of 22 percent over three seasons, per Jeff Deeney of Pro Football Focus.
Vance McDonald's two drops today now give him a drop rate of 22% for his career, lowest of any qualifying TE over the last three years.
— Jeff Deeney (@PFF_Jeff) December 21, 2015
Perhaps most notable to 49ers’ fans was his drop late in the game against Carolina in 2013.
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McDonald finished 2015 with 30 receptions, 326 yards, three touchdowns and six drops — most notably two that he had against the Bengals in Week 15 that went for interceptions.
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Unsurprisingly, in OTAs he picked up where he left off last season and also struggled to catch the ball. However, Grant Cohn of the Press Democrat reports that he did not drop a single pass during minicamp practices, so that’s encouraging. At this point if he does not remedy his struggles, he will not find a place in an offense that relies on speed and tempo to move the chains.
Next: Five Players Who Stand to Benefit the Most Under Chip Kelly
All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro Football Reference unless otherwise indicated.