5 Reasons Why the 49ers Will be Worse than You Think in 2016

They were lucky to go 5-11 last season

The 49ers’ 5-11 record was bad enough to earn them the seventh overall pick in the draft, but it could have been much worse. Their season opener against Minnesota—undeniably the high point of the year—saw them easily handle a playoff team, but all their other wins were unconvincing, to say the least.

They beat the Baltimore Ravens in Week 6, 25-20, but only after the Ravens had two shots from the 35-yard line for a game-winning score.

They beat the Atlanta Falcons in Week 9, 17-16, after Atlanta made the daft decision to kick a field goal from the 49ers’ one-yard line, down four with just three minutes left in the game.

They beat the Chicago Bears in Week 13, 26-20 in overtime, after Robbie Gould hooked a 36-yard field goal that would have won the game in regulation.

They beat the St. Louis Rams in Week 17, 19-16 in overtime, after the Rams’ game-winning field goal attempt was blocked.

That’s four of the 49ers five victories by less than a score, and at least three of them would have gone the other way if not for one specific moment. Overall, the 49ers were 4-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, and that’s not sustainable when you’re 5-11 overall. The team’s Pythagorian record—basically, what their record “should have been” considering how many points they scored and how many points they allowed—had them winning only 3.8 games.

The 49ers were a bit fortunate to even win as many as five games last year, and that doesn’t bode well for the future.

Next: Question Marks at Quarterback