San Francisco 49ers: Projecting 53-Man Roster in 2016

The San Francisco 49ers are going through a youth movement in 2016, and fans will see a large group of new faces wearing red and gold this season. Niner Noise takes an early look at what the team’s 53-man roster may look like this year.

The San Francisco 49ers have 53 regular-season roster spots up for grabs in the upcoming 2016 NFL season.

That number will have to be trimmed down from the current 90-man roster teams are allowed to have during offseason activities. The first wave of cuts — down to 75 players — takes place shortly after the third week of the preseason. The fourth, and final, cut will formulate the 53-man roster in advance of Week 1 of the regular season.

San Francisco’s 90-man roster my experience some changes between now and the start of the preseason. But that shouldn’t prevent us from taking another early look at what the 49ers roster may look like in the upcoming season.

Some positions, in all reality, aren’t up for grabs. Barring injury or other unforeseen circumstances (knock on wood), no one is going to usurp Pro Bowl linebacker NaVorro Bowman in 2016. And wide receiver Torrey Smith is the bona fide No. 1 option at his respective position.

But a number of slots are up for grabs.

With this in mind, let’s take a position-by-position look at how the 49ers roster could come together this season. We won’t dive into the practice squad or try to figure out which players might be inactive each and every week. Rather, let’s focus on how each position may come together as the regular season draws closer.

Note: Projected starters in base offenses/defenses will be listed in bold. Rookies will be italicized.

Next: Special Teams

Special Teams

Kicker: Phil Dawson

Punter: Bradley Pinion

Long-Snapper: Kyle Nelson

Kick Returner: Bruce Ellington

Punt Returner: Bruce Ellington

There actually might be a little bit of drama on special teams this season. And we aren’t talking about gunner positions or reserves trying to get on-field playing time.

Veteran kicker Phil Dawson, at 41 years old, signed an offseason one-year extension with the Niners, which will keep one of the better scoring options — yes, that’s true — the 49ers have. Dawson made 24 of 27 field-goal attempts a year ago and missed just one of his 21 extra-point attempts on the season.

But the 49ers also signed undrafted free agent John Lunsford out of Liberty. Lunsford could be nothing more than a camp body and someone to handle field-goal duties during the preseason in order to keep Dawson away from any sort of substantial injury risk.

Yet San Francisco might elect to promote Lunsford and part ways with Dawson — similar to how the organization handed punters Bradley Pinion and Andy Lee in 2015.

Dawson probably has the edge though. And Pinion isn’t going anywhere.

And wide receiver Bruce Ellington will assume return duties as there really isn’t a reason to assume someone else takes over this job.

Next: Safety

Safety

Free Safety: Eric Reid, Jimmie Ward, L.J. McCray

Strong Safety: Antoine Bethea, Jaquiski Tartt

The safety position will be one of interest in 2016 largely due to what may happen at the cornerback position this season. We’ll get to that shortly.

Safety Eric Reid isn’t going anywhere, so he’s a shoo-in starter. But the same can’t exactly be said of veteran safety Antoine Bethea.

Bethea is on the wrong side of 30 years old and, despite his veteran prowess and leadership, the 49ers might be looking to get younger and cheaper across the board. Bethea certainly isn’t in San Francisco’s long-term plans anymore, but at what point does he become a cut candidate?

Part of the thought here is defensive back Jimmie Ward could move from his slot corner position to his natural safety position at some point soon. It’s what general manager Trent Baalke hinted at following the 2016 NFL Draft, per Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News:

If Ward stays at nickel back, second-year safety Jaquiski Tartt could be a strong candidate to fill the void. The former second-round pick might be envisioned as a hybrid-type safety, who can occupy an inside linebacker spot in sub packages, but Tartt did see time (eight games last season) in Bethea’s stead when the latter was lost for the season to a pectoral injury.

But Bethea might be worth keeping around, at least for the start of the season, to see how the young crop of corners develop and what Ward’s future might hold.

And backup safety L.J. McCray is one of the better special teams aces on the roster.

Next: Cornerback

Cornerback

Tramaine Brock, Dontae Johnson, Jimmie Ward (nickel), Kenneth Acker, Will Redmond, Rashard Robinson

As noted on the previous slide, the cornerback position will have a major impact on what happens at safety — largely due to the versatility and growth of third-year defensive back Jimmie Ward.

Ward will probably occupy his nickel slot this season which, technically, isn’t a starting gig in standard defensive packages. But seeing how many sub packages are being employed on defenses now, the nickel back position is just as important.

Veteran Tramaine Brock will likely assume the No. 1 spot although, as Niner Noise staff writer Jerod Brown pointed out, there’s a good possibility he loses his starting job this season.

Maybe that happens down the line but, for now, let’s assume Brock holds onto his spot. But the No. 2 corner position sees a change. Third-year pro Dontae Johnson finally gets the edge here over Kenneth Acker.

Acker had more snaps than Johnson last season (823 to 380) but posted a minus-0.3 overall grade compared to Johnson’s plus-0.2, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Plus, Johnson’s 6’2″, 200-pound frame is something the Niners might like to have on the field on a more consistent basis.

The 49ers will want to see what they have in rookie corners Will Redmond and Rashard Robinson. Neither will come close to starting — barring injury — but these two will get some chances.

This means third-year pro Keith Reaser might be pushed out of the picture.

Next: Linebacker

Linebacker

Inside Linebacker: NaVorro Bowman, Michael Wilhoite, Gerald Hodges, Nick Bellore

Outside Linebacker: Aaron Lynch, Eli Harold, Ahmad Brooks, Marcus Rush, Tank Carradine

San Francisco passing on an inside linebacker in the 2016 NFL Draft likely means fans will see another season of Michael Wilhoite starting this season.

Wilhoite was one of the worst 49ers defenders last season, and he posted a minus-16.5 overall grade, per PFF, despite coming in second on the team in tackles (62). There could be a very close competition with fellow inside linebacker Gerald Hodges for the starting job, who was marginally better with a minus-5.6 overall PFF mark, but Wilhoite likely gets a slight edge here.

Outside linebacker Aaron Lynch isn’t going anywhere, and that’s a good thing. But the starting job opposite him winds up going to second-year pro Eli Harold.

Yes, this means veteran linebacker Ahmad Brooks is relegated to a backup role and may see time strictly in run-defense situations (it was his only positive mark, per PFF).

One might think Brooks could be a cut candidate this season. It’s still possible, but the 49ers would have likely made a move by now to do this based on the would-be money saved prior to his guaranteed 2016 salary going into effect.

Still, the Niners would ideally like to see more out of Harold in 2016 and how he can impact the pass rush — a crucial area of need for San Francisco this season.

The switching of Tank Carradine from defensive end to an edge-rusher is a move likely to push 2013 draft bust Corey Lemonier out of the picture.

Next: Defensive Line

Defensive Line

Nose Tackle: Ian Williams, Mike Purcell

Defensive Ends: Arik Armstead, Quinton Dial, DeForest Buckner, Tony Jerod-Eddie, Ronald Blair

No, rookie defensive end DeForest Buckner likely won’t be starting right away. And that’s just fine. He’ll get his fair share of snaps this season, and the 49ers will want to press their first-round investment from 2016 into the fray as soon as possible.

Instead, stalwart defensive lineman Quinton Dial will be listed as the starter along with second-year pro Arik Armstead.

At the nose position, Ian Williams should also get the start. He was ranked as San Francisco’s best defender in 2015 (plus-24.4 overall), according to PFF, but his ankle issues could keep him out of the starting lineup in Week 1. Should that be the case, Buckner might have a chance to start right away.

Keep an eye on fellow rookie draftee Ronald Blair as well. He won’t be used in anything more than specific pass-rushing situations this season, and as backup depth, but this project might be something of note.

Veteran defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey (knee) probably won’t be available to start the regular season. And it wouldn’t be surprising to see San Francisco stash him on injured reserve for the entire year or part ways with him altogether — depending on how younger players are developing.

Next: Offensive Line

Offensive Line

Tackles: Joe Staley, Trent Brown, Erik Pears, Fahn Cooper

Guards: Joshua Garnett, Zane Beadles, Andrew Tiller

Center: Daniel Kilgore, Marcus Martin

The 49ers made some noteworthy additions to the offensive line during the offseason, and that’s a very good thing.

Added to the fray, which was one of San Francisco’s worst units last year, is veteran guard Zane Beadles and rookies Joshua Garnett, Fahn Cooper and John Theus. Cooper might edge out Theus for a spot on the 53-man roster, but Theus would be a candidate for the practice squad.

Second-year pro Trent Brown will be pushed by Cooper, Theus and veteran Erik Pears to earn the starting job. But a strong effort at the tail end of 2015 gives Brown the nod here.

One may wonder why Pears remains on the roster after he posted a minus-30.7 overall PFF grade last year. But Pears has veteran prowess and is versatile enough to play either tackle or guard positions. The 49ers will keep him around for that alone.

There are no worries about Pro Bowl left tackle Joe Staley. And there shouldn’t be any regarding center Daniel Kilgore.

Garnett may have some questions about his pass protection and fit within a zone-style offense. But the 49ers will likely want to get Garnett’s run-mauling ways into the equation as soon as possible, so he’ll wind up starting in 2016.

If this doesn’t work, fellow guard Andrew Tiller is a good backup option.

Next: Tight End

Tight End

Garrett Celek, Vance McDonald, Blake Bell, Kyle Nelson (LS)

There should be a wide-open competition for the No. 2 tight end spot in 2016.

After signing a four-year, $10.2 million contract extension during the offseason, tight end Garrett Celek should be seen as the team’s best option to hold down the starting spot. He flashed some moments before a season-ending injury last season, and head coach Chip Kelly sure loves utilizing tight ends.

Technically, fullback Bruce Miller isn’t listed as a tight end just yet. Although, according to Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area, Miller will be featured at this position, given Kelly’s tendency not to use fullbacks in his offense.

Celek still earns the starting job though. He has a bit more speed with which to work. On the other hand, fourth-year pro Vance McDonald is put on watch. Questionable hands have been the major reason why McDonald’s roster spot is in jeopardy this season.

To recap:

2016 is a make-or-break season for McDonald. Oddly enough, McDonald typically has good preseasons. So this might keep him around for another year.

But that could relegate second-year pro Busta Anderson to the practice squad. For now.

Next: Wide Receiver

Wide Receiver

Torrey Smith, Bruce Ellington, Aaron Burbridge, Quinton Patton, Eric Rogers, DeAndre Smelter

Veteran wideout Torrey Smith is the unquestioned No. 1 option here. No surprises.

But the No. 2 job is completely up for grabs. Could it go to younger veterans like Bruce Ellington or Quinton Patton? Will former CFL standout Eric Rogers earn the nod? Or, perhaps, will second-year pro DeAndre Smelter make a strong case after being redshirted a year ago?

Any of the above scenarios are possible.

Let’s go with Ellington as the top candidate to earn the No. 2 gig for now. The reason is, at least according to Rich Madrid of Niner Noise, Ellington could emerge as an X-factor under head coach Chip Kelly. Unlike previous coaching regimes, Kelly might be able to get the most out of Ellington’s skill set.

One might also think rookie wideout Aaron Burbridge — the likely heir apparent to veteran wideout, and current free agent, Anquan Boldin — could earn the No. 2 spot.

Perhaps. But according to the 49ers’ YouTube site, the team is envisioning him as a slot receiver for now:

Keep an eye on Smelter though. He won’t start right away but, if things go correctly, the promising young receiver could wind up being the first of general manager Trent Baalke’s ACL-risk picks to actually pan out at the pro level.

Next: Running Back

Running Back

Halfback: Carlos Hyde, DuJuan Harris, Kelvin Taylor, Mike Davis

Fullback: Bruce Miller

Bruce Miller is a fullback in name only at this point.

And the No. 1 running back job will go to Carlos Hyde. There aren’t any questions there. But backing him up will be of critical importance in head coach Chip Kelly’s dynamic and uptempo offense.

Rookie running back Kelvin Taylor may assume this role a season from now. In the meantime, journeyman runner DuJuan Harris edges out fellow late-2015 addition Shaun Draughn for the primary backup spot.

Harris bested Draughn in average yards per carry last season (5.2 to 3.5). It’s a slight edge, but a notable one.

Lost in the mix, perhaps, will be second-year pro Mike Davis. The Niners may not be ready to admit any sort of mistake with their former fourth-round pick just yet, but Davis will have to prove he belongs on the roster.

At this point, he will. But who knows how long his tenure will be.

If anything, depth at this group was tested to a great extent a year ago. So the 49ers will want to be beefed up here.

Next: Quarterback

Quarterback

Colin Kaepernick, Blaine Gabbert, Jeff Driskel

OK, onto the slide everyone is waiting for.

Yes, Colin Kaepernick edges out Blaine Gabbert, the guy who surpassed Kap on the depth chart last year, for this year’s quarterback competition.

To do so, Kaepernick will have to come from behind — he wasn’t able to participate in practice due to his offseason surgeries — as Gabbert received first-team reps. And it’s even possible some members of the 49ers are pulling for Gabbert to get the starting job, as described in the video below:

Call it a hunch, but head coach Chip Kelly will likely want to see what he has in Kaepernick first before a possible move to Gabbert.

Few should doubt Kaepernick has a higher ceiling, based on his raw skill set alone, than his counterpart. A new head coach — one with an ability to boost quarterbacks — certainly helps here.

By no means does this assure Kap retains the starting job for the entirety of 2016. But, seeing how the 49ers still control his rights for the foreseeable future, Kaepernick should receive first consideration.

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It’s a job Kaepernick will have to retain though. Perhaps the knowledge of a starting-caliber quarterback like Gabbert looking over his shoulder and hot on his tail will provide the added motivation to try to regain the same form Kap had back in 2012 and 2013.

Maybe it’s not. Who knows what will happen here.

But, to start, Kaepernick wins out atop the quarterbacking depth chart.

Some players are listed twice, and there are a few spots still up for grabs (likely special teams contributors). But this should hammer out an initial look at what the 53-man roster could be in 2016.

Next: Steps to Rebuild the 49ers in 2016

All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.