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Breaking Down 49ers’ Top NFL Draft Needs by Value

By Bryan Knowles

Apr 30, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the podium on stage before the 2015 NFL Draft at the Auditorium Theatre of Roosevelt University. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 30, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the podium on stage before the 2015 NFL Draft at the Auditorium Theatre of Roosevelt University. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports /
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Feb 26, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Eastern Kentucky defensive lineman Noah Spence speaks to the media during the 2016 NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 26, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Eastern Kentucky defensive lineman Noah Spence speaks to the media during the 2016 NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports /

3. Edge Rusher

Average pick: Noah Spence, Eastern Kentucky (Value: Pick 61)
Median pick: Dadi Nicolas, Virginia Tech (Value: Pick 124)
49ers “Hot Spot” Picks: 37, 68, 105, 133

Outside of Aaron Lynch, the 49ers didn’t provide much of a pass rush last year. Adding a highly-rated edge rusher would boost the defense, and mimic the Super Bowl-winning Denver Broncos’ pattern of success.

There are certainly first-round-quality pass rushers available in this year’s draft. Joey Bosa or DeForest Buckner (who is less of an edge rusher than a 3-4 defensive end, but a good enough pass rusher to qualify as filling a need) would certainly be perfectly solid picks in the first round. However, there are a lot of edge rushers who will be available in rounds 2-4, meaning the 49ers could probably afford to lay off the position early and get a very solid player on the second day of the draft.

ESPN has 46 draftable players listed as defensive ends and outside linebackers, and more than half of them fall between their 17th (Shaq Lawson) and 134th (James Cowser) ranking. No, not all of them would fit the 49ers’ 3-4 defensive style, and not all are pure edge-rushers, but that still leaves a ton of viable players for the 49ers to choose from with the four picks they have in that range. Someone is bound to fall, and they’re likely to get good value.

Fancy a second-round pick? Maybe one of Shaq Lawson, Leonard Floyd or Kamalei Correa will drop, or you could take Kevin Dodd or Emanuel Ogbah as solid worse-case scenario picks.

Prefer your edge rusher in the third round? ESPN’s projection of Noah Spence down in that range seems somewhat optimistic, but Georgia’s Jordan Jenkins or Michigan State’s Shilique Calhoun seem like more than reasonable selections.

Forgot to pick an edge rusher on day two, and want to correct that right off the bat in the fourth round? Wisconsin’s Joe Schobert or Utah State’s Kyler Fackrell could be the player for you. And if you’d prefer waiting until the compensatory picks start happening by the end of the fourth round, Virginia Tech’s Dadi Nicolas or Minnesota’s De’Vondre Campbell will likely be available.

The talent dries up somewhat after that point, at least when it comes to players who might actually contribute on the field in 2016. The back half of Day 2 really seems like a sweet spot for edge rushers, and a good place for San Francisco to bolster their defense in what’s likely to be a primarily offensive draft.

Next: A Secondary Need