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Breaking Down 49ers’ Top NFL Draft Needs by Value

By Bryan Knowles

Apr 30, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the podium on stage before the 2015 NFL Draft at the Auditorium Theatre of Roosevelt University. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 30, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; A general view of the podium on stage before the 2015 NFL Draft at the Auditorium Theatre of Roosevelt University. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jan 2, 2016; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Christian Hackenberg (14) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Georgia Bulldogs at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 2, 2016; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Christian Hackenberg (14) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Georgia Bulldogs at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports /

2. Quarterback

Average pick: Christian Hackenberg, Penn State (Value: Pick 50)
Median pick: Brandon Allen, Arkansas (Value: Pick 105)
49ers “Hot Spot” Picks: 7, 37, 174

Note: this article was written before the blockbuster trade that saw the Los Angeles Rams trade up to the top draft slot.  That makes the possibility of the 49ers getting one of the top two quarterbacks in the first round substantially worse.

The average quarterback in this draft is ever so slightly worse than the average offensive tackle. There doesn’t appear to be a near no-miss prospect like Andrew Luck, merely a couple very good prospects who may have their value slightly inflated by virtue of playing the most important position in football.

However, there are also fewer draftable quarterbacks really available in this year’s draft—13 in ESPN’s top 255, as opposed to 18 offensive tackles. Add in a relative lack of a middle class of quarterback between “potentially ready to start on day one” and “long-term developmental project” and you likely have a greater chance of missing out on a good quarterback than you do of missing a good tackle. Your first- or second-round tackle might be a better player than your first- or second-round quarterback, but there are fewer consolation prizes if you miss out on a top-five quarterback in this year’s draft. Call these needs 1 and 1A more than anything else.

Everyone knows the top two quarterbacks by this point—North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz and California’s Jared Goff. I do not have a very strong opinion on which one is better; Wentz has the higher ceiling and lower floor, while Goff is the more reliable of the two picks, if that can ever be said about the random nature of the draft. Purely based on value, the 49ers might wish they could trade back a handful of slots and take one in the low teens rather than at number seven but that’s the premium you pay for a quarterback these days.

If both are gone, or the 49ers opt to go in another direction, there’s a class of three quarterbacks below them that comprise a pretty solid second-tier; the 49ers could wait and see which of Memphis’ Paxton Lynch, Michigan State’s Connor Cook or Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg fell to them at pick 37. There’s an argument to be made that a Ronnie Stanley-Connor Cook duo would be a better group than, say, a Jared Goff-Jason Spriggs pairing, but that comes down a lot to personal choice—they’re both valid strategies.

Those five quarterbacks are nearly 40 percent of the “draftable” quarterbacks in this year’s draft, however. While there are a handful of other names who will go late on day two or early on day three, the closest thing to a cluster the 49ers have after this point would be towards the end of round five and beginning of round six, when names like USC’s Cody Kessler, Stanford’s Kevin Hogan and Louisiana’s Jeff Driskel are expected to come off the board. If the 49ers can’t get a quarterback of the future in this year’s draft, one of these three might be a good player to target to bolster the position in the long-term.

Still, when you look at the success of quarterbacks in the first round versus all other rounds, and the amount to which a top quarterback is still a much-needed component to most playoff runs, I’d grab one of the top two quarterbacks in the first round and move on from there, no matter what value players can be found later.

Next: Living on the Edge