2016 NFL Draft: Worst-Case Scenarios for 49ers

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The 49ers knew they would draft A.J. Jenkins before the 2012 draft even began. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports /

Falling in Love with One Guy

You don’t draft a player with your first-round pick just because it’s a position of need. You don’t take a player with your first-round pick if you’re the only one in the league who thinks he deserves to go that high. Trent Baalke and his staff need to keep a players’ value in mind. It’s bad enough when you miss on a first-round pick, but sometimes, players just don’t work out. If, however, you reach for a player a round or two earlier than they’re projected to go, you’re missing out on a chance to draft a more highly-regarded player and taking the normal risk that a player wouldn’t work out. It’s a possible double-whammy.

Take 2012 and Baalke’s greatest failure, A.J. Jenkins. CBS had Jenkins as the 58^th-best player in the draft that year. It’s reasonable to assume that either Jenkins would fall to the 49ers’ second-round pick, or that they would have been able to make a more reasonable move up in the second round to take Jenkins at a point where most teams pegged his potential was worth the risk in taking him. Instead, Baalke was so confident that his evaluation of Jenkins was correct that he wrote down the pick the night before and kept it in a sealed envelope, asserting that Jenkins would be gone earlier in the second round than most experts would have predicted.

Essentially making your pick the night before is a terrible idea. Who knows; if Baalke hadn’t been set on Jenkins, maybe he would have considered taking guard Cordy Glenn, replacing Adam Snyder. Maybe he would have considered running back Doug Martin, defensive tackle Derek Wolfe or cornerback Janoris Jenkins, all of whom went shortly after Jenkins. Maybe he would have re-considered taking one of the receivers generally ranked higher than Jenkins, like Alshon Jeffery.

The lesson isn’t “just do what everyone else does”; it’s perfectly valid to have some players rated higher than other teams have them, and you need to trust your own scouting at the end of the day. However, if the general consensus has a player ranked a round or two lower than you have them, it’s best to try to maneuver to a lower pick to take the player and receive more picks in return.

The equivalent this year would be the 49ers falling in love with Paxton Lynch or Connor Cook, and deciding to take them with the seventh overall pick. Both players will likely being drafted significantly lower than that, so if the 49ers are dead-set on getting one, they should trade back and make the effort to draft them at a more reasonable position. Don’t bet the farm on one player; be flexible and move and react to the draft as things develop.

Next: Drafting All the Injured Players!