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San Francisco 49ers: Which Quarterback Should Start for Chip Kelly in 2016?

By Bryan Knowles

Nov 8, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert (2) and quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) warm up before the game against the Atlanta Falcons at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 8, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert (2) and quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) warm up before the game against the Atlanta Falcons at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports /
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Dec 29, 2015; Fort Worth, TX, USA; California Golden Bears quarterback Jared Goff (16) celebrates with his teammates after defeating the Air Force Falcons at Amon G. Carter Stadium. California won 55-36. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 29, 2015; Fort Worth, TX, USA; California Golden Bears quarterback Jared Goff (16) celebrates with his teammates after defeating the Air Force Falcons at Amon G. Carter Stadium. California won 55-36. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports /

1. A First-Round Rookie

The fact that Kaepernick hasn’t really addressed the flaws in his game—his accuracy, his touch on short passes and his pre-snap reads—in his time in the league is a bit concerning. It’s possible his collapse over the last two seasons is due to the league catching up and solving his particular brand of offense. In that case, why not let the franchise start over again with a new head coach and a new franchise quarterback?

The 49ers have the seventh overall pick in the draft. Since the merger, picks in this neighborhood have resulted in franchise players like Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Donovan McNabb and Steve McNair, all of whom were pieces to build around for over a decade. Yes, there have been plenty of busts in this area—think of your Ryan Leafs, your Akili Smiths and your Kelly Stouffers—but about 40 percent of quarterbacks taken in this general vicinity have gone on to long, productive careers.

That’s not significantly better than the number of successful quarterbacks taken around the 49ers’ 37th-overall pick, but you’re also looking at a far bigger chance of players washing out entirely, like John Beck or Matt Blundin. Players taken around the 49ers third-round pick (No. 68) have only become solid long-term starters about 15 percent of the time, thanks to Neil O’Donnell, Dan Fouts and Ken Anderson, and are more likely to include a familiar name from 49ers history in Giovanni Carmazzi.

The top two quarterbacks in the draft—Jared Goff and Carson Wentz—look to be worth a gamble in the top ten. They have traits you’re looking for in a long-term starter, though neither is a perfect prospect. I’d put them in the general pre-draft class of previous top-15 picks like Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles and Cam Newton, though not as good of a prospect as, say , an Andrew Luck, a Jameis Winston or a…Robert Griffin.

…Drafting isn’t an exact science.

So, I think assigning a rough probability of 40 percent that Goff or Wentz would be the 49ers’ starter in 2020 seems reasonable. It’s clearly a gamble, but one with potentially franchise-altering upside.

Would you put a 40 percent chance on Kaepernick recovering his past form with Chip Kelly? A 40 percent chance that Sam Bradford will stay healthy for the next five years? A 40 percent chance that Blaine Gabbert will stop being the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Blaine Gabbert? That instinctually feels wrong in all cases.

Make no mistake—whoever the 49ers have starting at quarterback in 2016 will be a gamble. Their best gamble, however, is going for a top quarterback prospect in the draft and going with it. If Both Wentz and Goff are gone, however, their best option is to stick with Colin Kaepernick and hope it will be 2013 all over again next season.

Next: Five Free Agents the 49ers Should Avoid

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Bryan Knowles is a staff writer here at Niner Noise.  Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.