Niner Noise
FanSided

Way Too Early 2016 Statistical Predictions for San Francisco 49ers

By Peter Panacy

Oct 18, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde (28) rushes for a gain against the Baltimore Ravens during the first quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 18, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde (28) rushes for a gain against the Baltimore Ravens during the first quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 27, 2015; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer (left) is sacked by San Francisco 49ers defensive lineman Arik Armstead at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 27, 2015; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer (left) is sacked by San Francisco 49ers defensive lineman Arik Armstead at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /

Defensive Stat Lines

The start of the 49ers’ 2015 campaign was pretty ugly on defense. Aside from Week 1, San Francisco struggled to get any sort of defensive rhythm and didn’t have any true standout game until Weeks 4 and 9 against the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons, respectively.

Remember that Falcons game in which the Niners defense held then-NFL leading rusher Devonta Freeman to just 12 yards on as many carries?

Regardless, former defensive coordinator Eric Mangini’s unit was too inconsistent to make any sort of headway. This in spite of some notable improvements in the second half of the season.

Yet the 49ers finished last year with the No. 18 defense in fewest points allowed (387) and gave up the second-most yards of any NFL team (6,199). Their run defense — in part because the Niners rarely led at the end of games — ranked No. 29 in the league with 2,020 yards given up.

True, the 49ers have some young and promising pieces to their defense. While this will help, Kelly’s defenses have been known for being exposed by the offense.

Let’s take the 2015 Eagles for example.

According to Football Outsiders, Philadelphia ranked No. 17 in defensive DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). San Francisco ranked No. 27.

Added experience to the up-and-coming 49ers defenders will help. But Kelly’s defenses have never been top-tier groups at the pro level. The Eagles finished No. 17, No. 22 and No. 28 in the three-consecutive seasons with Kelly at the helm.

And how much confidence should one have in new defensive coordinator Jim O’Neil after what was a forgettable effort with the Cleveland Browns a year ago?

Expect the Niners defense to be close to where they were in 2015 — giving up somewhere between 350 and 400 points on the season and a yards-against total around 6,000.

Next: Record and Division Standing