NFL Free Agency: 2016 Primer for San Francisco 49ers

Super Bowl 50 is in the books and the offseason has officially begun. The 49ers are as capable as any team of rebuilding their roster for success. Of course, free agency begins that rebuild. Here’s an in-depth primer for the 49ers approach to free agency.

NFL free agency is the most exciting time of the year. For some, it is the least exciting time of the year. Watching your favorite players choose to join another team isn’t easy. Fans get attached to stars of their favorite teams and then find themselves watching as they sign on the dotted-line to play elsewhere the following year.

The NFL shelf life is relatively short, and players deserve to sign for as much money as possible to support themselves far after football. Unfortunately, that means that our cherished teams represent a never-ending carousel of personnel as the needs change.

The San Francisco 49ers enter 2016 in a position that they haven’t recently held. With tons of cap space, more picks in the NFL draft than most teams and leaders on the team headed for free agency, the 49ers must analyze the needs of the team and target the appropriate players to usher in new head coach Chip Kelly’s first season at Levi’s Stadium.

General manager Trent Baalke is tasked with finding the right balance between the value of free agents relative to the price tags associated with those players. While he begins to assess other players, none may be more important than the players he has already had an opportunity to see play in the red and gold. Baalke has largely underwhelmed lately and begins the league year firmly on the hot seat.

Whether Baalke and 49ers’ CEO Jed York admit it or not, this team is knee-deep in a rebuild as they repair their image. The free agent class that Baalke lands will give fans a clear indication of the image of the team around the league. If Baalke lands big names, fans can assume that the franchise turmoil is behind the team. Right now, that goodwill is massive for both Baalke and York.

Baalke will have to decide whether to put his eggs in the basket of players he is familiar with or players from outside of the organization. As the 49ers prep for the 2016 NFL Draft and the start of the new league year on March 9, enjoy a primer for the organization’s course of action.

Next: 49ers' Cap Breakdown

49ers Cap Space Breakdown

According to OverTheCap.com, the 49ers have roughly $52 million in salary cap space. The salary cap is essentially the amount that a team can commit to pay its players. There are restrictions and different options that teams have to consider when balancing the salaries of their team.

OverTheCap has a detailed piece that explains the nuances in much finer detail. For the purposes of our work, let’s keep it simple and say it’s the amount that teams can pay their players in any given year. Every team in the NFL is subjected to the same salary cap number. 

Currently, the 49ers have the third-most cap space in the entire NFL. Niner Noise has addressed the 49ers’ salary cap situation recently. Take a look to get caught up on where the 49ers stand. The salary cap is one of the most confusing and number-driven aspects in building a team. Nicholas McGee has done an exceptional job clarifying how the 49ers can be prepared moving forward.

Ultimately, it is similar to balancing a checkbook in our personal lives. We’ve got a certain amount of money to spend and we have to prioritize where that money is allocated. Do we pay more for rent? Maybe we like to shop? The NFL salary cap, in its most basic form, is no different.

Each player at any position represents a given value to the team and they must pay for his services accordingly. The market is set by the league as a whole and the amounts that other teams are willing to pay comparable players.

Typically, the highest-paid players on any team are the star quarterbacks. And rightfully so. However, drafting young players is the perfect antidote to a bloated cap number. Acquiring cheap players that sign as rookies for four years can be increasingly beneficial as teams are forced to pay big elsewhere for established veterans.

Nonetheless, the 49ers enter 2016 with more flexibility than most teams when it comes to addressing their roster relative to the restrictions of the salary cap. That flexibility is an invaluable tool for a general manager looking to rebuild. 

Next: Baalke's Method of Operation

Trent Baalke’s Free Agency History

49ers general manager Trent Baalke is well-known as a willing trader throughout the draft. He comes from the camp that believes that stockpiling picks is more beneficial than making major moves throughout free agency.

Picks are the ultimate currency in the NFL. They represent young and cheap players that have an opportunity to grow into dominant stars. The draft is a practice in educated guesses and probability. The more guesses a team has, the higher the chance of drafting a future superstar.

Baalke plays the draft. That’s a wonderful strategy. But building a team is a multi-part process. Excelling as a draft manager is great, but the team needs a front office that does more.

Primarily, Baalke’s moves in free agency come later than star signings and are marked by veteran players coming in on low salaries to compete. When they hit, Baalke looks like a genius. When they fail, the team can release the players with little to no consequences.

If you need evidence of this strategy, look no further than the signings of former 49ers cornerbacks Carlos Rogers and Shareece Wright.

When Rogers was signed, the report on him was that he was a high draft pick that failed to live up to the spot he was drafted at. Along with that, fans continually heard about Rogers’ inability to catch a football and create turnovers. As it turned out, Rogers had a productive career over three seasons with the 49ers and managed nine interceptions despite the concerns over his hands.

Wright was a similar signing. He joined the 49ers in March and appeared destined to battle as a starter. The design of the contract gave fans reason to pause considering Wright’s unimpressive stats in his previous season as a San Diego Charger. Throughout the preseason, Wright looked less and less productive. He eventually saw his time as a 49er end when he was released in October.

In the case of Rogers, Baalke looked brilliant. The signing of Wright, however frugal it was, didn’t pan out with the same success.

Baalke has, however, made large moves that reinvigorate the fan base. The signing of wide receiver Torrey Smith last year excited fans for what might develop between the receiver and strong-armed quarterback Colin Kaepernick.

The what-could-have-been narrative has been spun more times than most of us ever wanted. Kap finally had a deep threat receiver to air it out and, well, it just wasn’t a successful pairing. Smith may bounce back in 2016 but 33 receptions for 663 receiving yards wasn’t the expectation that most had.

Baalke needs an exciting signing that actually produces on-field results to see his reputation skyrocket back up to where it was before souring over the last couple of seasons.

For an excellent piece that examines all of Baalke’s actions as general manager, check out Bay Area Sports Guy Steve Berman’s recent work.

Fortunately, with plenty of money and a strong free agent class, Baalke has a chance to flip the predictability of his actions and to target some of the biggest names in this year’s class.

Next: 49ers Free Agents

Assessing the 49ers’ Free Agent Class

The 49ers have their own crop of players that are looking to sign deals this offseason. Some contracts will be for the short-term and some for the long-term. Regardless, they’ll all be looking to earn the maximum amount they can in the free agent market.

OverTheCap has an excellent list of the players and their salaries. Some of those free agents will be negotiated at low salaries and will largely remain as depth players. There are, however, a few names that should make fans take notice.

Guard Alex Boone has been with the 49ers since signing as an undrafted free agent in 2009. Boone joined the 49ers after playing at Ohio State University. He came with question marks off the field that the team acknowledged and Boone has remained a positive impact on the team throughout his time.

Unfortunately, he’ll enter free agency looking to be paid as a right tackle and the 49ers simply don’t view him at that position. They’ve expected Boone to make the transition to guard since becoming a starter in 2012 and, while teams will pay for Boone as a tackle, the 49ers aren’t one of those teams. He’ll almost surely sign with another team.

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Anquan Boldin may be the most influential player on the 49ers entire roster. To see him leave in free agency would mean a natural locker room leader is no longer on the team. After winning the Walter Payton Man of the Year award on Saturday night, Boldin embodies everything about being a professional.

Sometimes, even when it’s expensive, you ought to pay to have those kind of men on your team. Boldin, at 35 years old, will likely be signing his final contract as an NFL player and he may be interested in playing for a team with a chance at winning a championship. The 49ers are not that team. Not in 2016, at least.

Boldin has had an impressive few years as a 49er and the team could surely find a way to use him if he returns. The question is not whether the team would want him back, I’m sure they’d appreciate his leadership. The issue, however, lies with the amount that Boldin would sign for to return. On a team with plenty of needs, re-signing an older receiver at a high price might discourage the front office from digging too deep into talks with Boldin’s agent.

The team drafted DeAndre Smelter last year with the future in mind. That future may have included an Anquan Boldin-less team.Despite Boldin’s proven success throughout his career, the team might believe they have a replacement in waiting.

The oldest free agent of interest in kicker Phil Dawson. The 49ers have routinely relied on their kickers for the last decade. Between Joe Nedney, David Akers and now Phil Dawson, the 49ers regularly have kickers leading the league in field goals attempted. The front office seems to place a premium on veteran kickers that are consistent and dependable.

Dawson has seen his role begin to decline, with the team assigning kickoff duties to recently-drafted punter Bradley Pinion. Dawson has a high rate of success, but it’s difficult to justify spending the money to keep him in San Francisco.

Dawson recently turned 41 years old and counted over $4 million against the cap last season. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which the team would pay an older kicker that amount of money again. Dawson, however reliable, may find himself kicking for another team in 2016 simply based on his age and contract.

Nose tackle Ian Williams will be a free agent and the man deserves a major pay raise. He’ll get it. Hopefully from San Francisco and not another team, but it’s coming either way. We’ve discussed Williams’ importance to the team more than once. The general consensus is that the team needs to make re-signing Williams a priority this offseason.

Reggie Bush, who was brought in to be the second-string running back, was largely a disappointment before slipping on concrete in St. Louis and seeing his season end.

The players that joined the team post-Bush injury were much more reliable and proved more than capable of shouldering the load in Hyde’s absence. Bush is as good as gone. 

Baalke and his team have begun evaluating all of the players on the roster. In addition to the player personnel department, new head coach Chip Kelly will also have his own opinions about current players. Baalke has the money and can make re-signing his guys a priority, but he’ll have to decide at what value and price he brings players back.

Baalke’s typical method is to set a value for each player and give them an opportunity to accept or test the market for more money. When players decline, the team moves on unapologetically. The strategy is prudent and beneficial in building teams of depth. This offseason may force Baalke to readdress his strategy if he expects to re-sign his own highly-regarded players.

Next: Free Agents Around the League

Assessing the Free Agent Class Throughout the League

The 49ers have a ton of money at the right time. The soon-to-be free agent class is loaded this year. With a budget that’s got plenty of room for others, the 49ers could sign multiple players from around the league to high-priced contracts. A few well-executed moves could have this team back in contention for a division title much faster than most thought.

Check out the entire free agent class at NFL.com.

The 49ers have had plenty of names floated out as potential targets. One can expect that Baalke and his staff will examine any and all free agents that might be able to help the team grow. Quite simply, it’s a relatively clear goal. Replace the players that leave. Whether done through the draft or free agency, for every player that goes, one’s got to come through the door.

The trick is, of course, making sure that the players that are here are better than those that go.

The 49ers have needs on both sides of the ball. How you prioritize those needs might depend on what you expect of the team in Kelly’s first year as head coach. There’s never a bad time to make sure you have a dominant offensive line. Similarly, a dynamic wide receiver can mask deficiencies all over the field. And, as we saw on Sunday, a dominant defense is often the key to championships.

How the 49ers elect to spend their money will be a multi-step plan that includes draft strategies and decisions on their own players first. Having money to spend is wonderful. But spending incorrectly could keep the team looking up in the NFC West division.

The 49ers are situated perfectly to sign at least one, if not more, of the biggest names on the market. Whether they target the New York Jets’ defensive tackle Muhammed Wilkerson or one of the talented outside linebackers in Denver’s Von Miller or Seattle’s Bruce Irvin, the 49ers moves will be directly linked to how they feel about the current roster and their draft strategy.

Predicting where the 49ers might spend money is difficult without a clear view of who will be available. While Wilkerson and Irvin may get to play the market, most assume that Miller will either be signed or franchise-tagged by Denver. As much as the 49ers might like to target Miller, he may never be an option.

There will be, however, excellent bargains and the 49ers should look there to build the depth of the team back after watching a mass exodus over recent seasons. Specifically, there are five players that the team should target.

Baalke could easily decide to spend the majority of the 49ers resources attempting to sign players that would come from other teams. Players like Miller aren’t available every season. His exceptional career as a Bronco makes him the hottest commodity on the market. The 49ers will be one of just many teams to line up for his services.

The front office will have to negotiate the immediate needs of the team with trying to build for future and sustainable success. The dominance of one player can immediately impact a unit on the team but there’s a price associated with that strategy. In every move, Baalke will be guessing at the return of his investment.

The 49ers need to hope that he guesses correctly more often than not.

Next: 49ers Approach to Free Agency

Predicting the 49ers Best Approach to Free Agency

The 49ers have the flexibility that other teams covet. They have a stockpile of draft picks, a ton of money and a roster that could use upgrades throughout. Just about anything they do will be seen as a positive move.

We’ve discussed cap space, Baalke’s tendencies, 49er free agents and free agents throughout the league. So, what would be the best approach for the 49ers? I’m glad you asked!

The 49ers shouldn’t look into signing Wilkerson from the Jets. They should relax on Miller now and not even get their hopes up. The Broncos will slap the franchise tag on him. He’s too good for them to let go. Bruce Irvin might be in play, but he’ll be interested in getting more money than he’s worth. The 49ers shouldn’t be the team to pay him.

No, the 49ers should ride with who they have now on defense. The starters are growing together. There’s no need to introduce new players. Outside linebacker Aaron Lynch is becoming a dominant edge player. With more time, he’ll be worth every penny. Eli Harold was just drafted. Let’s give the young man some time before we call it quits on him. The defense is fine.

Well, almost.

Trent Baalke, are you listening? What I’m about to say may be the most important thing someone tells you all offseason. Back the truck up for Ian Williams. He deserves it based on his play. In addition to his play, he’s becoming a de-facto leader of this defense. And you need that with a new head coach that isn’t exactly a defensive guru. Keep guys like Williams around. It’ll save your job.

Okay, Trent, you’re dismissed.

The 49ers should be highly interested in spending on offense.

Re-sign Anquan Boldin. He’s the Walter Payton Man of the Year. Sign him if for no other reason than the fact that he’ll mentor young men into complete players on and off the field. The 49ers have a damaged image. Boldin sticking around helps.

It’s imperative that Baalke gets a couple of guards. They need one in free agency and one in the draft. The money is there. So, put it on the table for one of the best. The top two guards to target would be Denver Bronco Evan Mathis or Baltimore Raven Kelechi Osemele. Plug either guy in on the left or right.

In the first three rounds of the draft, the 49ers should get another guard to compete with Andrew Tiller for the other starting spot. Cody Whitehair is the top interior offensive lineman in the draft. It’s not really close. The 49ers would likely have to trade back into the end of Round 1 if they are interested in Whitehair. Baakle may balk at that type of move with other needs on the roster.

Christian Westerman will be available in the third or fourth round. He’s from Arizona State and, more importantly, he’s been working with former NFL-player LeCharles Bentley. Bentley, who owns O-Line Performance, is one of the top trainers and general offensive line masters in today’s coaching climate. Westerman is learning from the best. You know who has also trained with Bentley? Alex Boone. Swap out Boone and replace him with a training mate.

Lastly, the 49ers need to go get as many playmakers as they can. Load them up on offense. Head coach Chip Kelly will certainly use them. Bring in a ton of shiny new toys and let the best players compete against one another for playing time every week. The 49ers will likely need five solid receivers in Kelly’s system. As of now, before free agency, they have one proven player in receiver Torrey Smith. They’ll need more and they’ll need them quickly.

Next: Post-Super Bowl Mock Draft

Will any of this happen? Probably. Will it all? No way. And certainly not with the confidence with which we so eloquently stated. But, the beauty of this free agency period is that the 49ers can make this happen. It’s a position unfamiliar to most within the organization. Not only is there a need, but the 49ers have the money and resources to create a strategy of any type and execute it.

The 49ers enter the offseason in a position to rebuild the roster specifically to run Kelly’s offensive schemes. They have the money, flexibility and player options in free agency that are some of the best in years. Besides that, they’ve got picks galore in the upcoming draft and can use them as currency throughout the league. They are in an enviable position.

Which makes it worse if Baalke blows it. He may never get another do-over. This could be his last season leading the front office of this team. With all of the resources in his pocket, he should be excited for a chance to reassert himself as one of the best in the league.

The 49ers need him to. The front office doesn’t exactly sit in the good graces of fans currently. Sure, the Faithful are excited about a coach that appears more competent than the last. But, they also watched as said coach was ran out of his previous job. Call it careful optimism.

Free agency will be the 49ers first attempt at making some headway in the public relations department. If they knock it out of the park, it can carry the organization into August with some momentum. We know what a demoralizing offseason can do to a team. We just sat through it.

All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and ESPN Statistics unless otherwise indicated.