San Francisco 49ers: An Early Look at Locks for the 2016 Roster

Bryan Knowles

Dec 20, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers inside linebacker NaVorro Bowman (53) celebrates after the 49ers recovered an onside kick during the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium. The Cincinnati Bengals defeated the San Francisco 49ers 24-14. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

Chip Kelly’s reign can’t start entirely from scratch. Which current 49ers are locks for the 2016 roster?

Chip Kelly comes to the San Francisco 49ers with mostly a blank canvas to work with. He brings with him an entirely new offensive philosophy, likely a new defensive coordinator and an entirely different organizational philosophy from the Jim Tomsula era. Add in the third-most cap space in the league, per Over the Cap, the seventh-overall pick in the draft and plenty of draft picks to go around, and we can expect the 2016 49ers to look entirely different than their predecessors, right?

Well, not quite. While Kelly and the 49ers have a lot of room and power to make changes to the roster this season, it’s not like the entire 53-man roster is open for turnover. First and foremost, there is actually talent currently on the roster, and you wouldn’t want to throw the baby out with the bathwater, even if you are attempt to reshape the team in Kelly’s image.

Secondly, even if Kelly and Trent Baalke were to determine, for some reason, that every player on the roster was not a good fit for the 49ers moving forward, there are salary cap and roster-building concerns that would keep them from starting with a fresh slate. In short, decisions made in the Jim Harbaugh and Jim Tomsula eras–and even some made back when Mike Singletary and Mike Nolan controlled the franchise–will impact Chip Kelly’s initial roster, whether he likes it or not.

With that in mind, let’s try to project the locks for the eventual 53-man roster; or at least, as close to locks as we can predict in January. There are a few ground rules before we start, however:

We’re solely looking at on-field issues when calling someone a lock or not; events off the field could have significant impacts. For example, at this point last season, we would have called Patrick Willis and Aldon Smith locks to make the 2015 roster. However, Willis surprisingly retired and Smith got in more trouble with the law, leading to neither of them playing for the 49ers this past season. If Carlos Hyde decides to open a crochet emporium and retire from the NFL, or Vance McDonald is revealed to be part of an international diamond thieving guild, they won’t be on the team regardless of their other credentials.
Players must actually be under contract for 2016 in order to be considered locks. While the 49ers are likely to attempt to re-sign Ian Williams and Alex Boone, their future is not fully in the team’s control. Most free agent signings get large enough contracts to make them locks, but we’re not projecting free agent moves at this point.
Just because a player is not projected as a lock does not mean they won’t make the final 53-man roster, or even that they are unlikely to. For example, Blaine Gabbert isn’t listed—his performance in 2015 wasn’t good enough that he’s an obvious player on a contending team going forward, nor is his contract unwieldy enough that the team couldn’t cut him if they wanted to. However, considering Chip Kelly made a point of mentioning him several times in his introductory press conference, it seems likely that he’s in at least the rough plans at the moment. That doesn’t necessarily mean that, if the 49ers draft a first-round passer and sign a veteran backup, that Gabbert can’t still be cut, just that he seems like a solid bet to be on the 53-man roster next season.

I sort locks into four categories, from least to most subjective:

Recent high draft picks.
Players with contracts that would be difficult or expensive to cut.
Players who played well in 2015.
Players who did not play well in 2015, but have had past success and an excuse for last season.

You can see how they go from obvious to subjective—a player is either a first-round pick or not, but whether a player has a logical excuse for poor play last season is very much in the eye of the beholder.

With all the preamble out of the way, let’s look at which players actually fall in which categories.

Next: Recent High Draft Picks

Arik Armstead (91) sacks Carson Palmer. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Recent High Draft Picks

A well-run team won’t give up on their draft picks and projects without giving them a fair chance to realize the potential they saw in them on draft day. While there are exceptions to this rule—A.J. Jenkins was so bad in his first two seasons, the team felt they had to move on—generally, you want to give your first-round picks at least three seasons before admitting they were a poor choice.

With that in mind, here are the recent draft pick locks:

DT Arik Armstead (First-round pick, 2015)
DB Jimmie Ward (First-round pick, 2014)
SS Jaquiski Tartt (Second-round pick, 2015)
OLB Eli Harold (Third-round pick, 2015)

They will be joined by possibly as many as eight draftees from 2016—anyone in the first five rounds is likely going to make the opening day roster, barring injury—but these four are the ones who look to have a roster spot sewn up just because they were lauded on recent draft days.

Arik Armstead actually had a very solid rookie season, albeit one that saw him sitting on the bench more than you’d hope a first-round pick would. When he saw the field, he was very solid in both the pass rush and run defense, and would earn a “lock” designation regardless of his draft status. Jimmie Ward also would qualify even if he had come out of nowhere; Ward’s took a step forward as the nickel corner in his sophomore season. He’s not a superstar by any means, but considering the average 30^th overall pick usually starts for three or four seasons without becoming a Pro Bowler or anything, Ward at least seems to be having a solid start to his career.

Jaquiski Tartt showed some potential, especially when it came to making tackles. He still showed some rookie mistakes, and he was better when he wasn’t asked to be the starting strong safety, but he outperformed what I thought he would do when he was taken in last year’s draft. I’d like to see him take another step forward next season, but that’s true of almost any young player.

Eli Harold arguably had the worst season of any of these young players. Like Armstead, he had inconsistent playing time, but he didn’t flash as much when he actually made it onto the field. Reports from the end of last season suggested that the team wanted him to add muscle, which might help him going forward.

Next: Large Contracts

Joe Staley’s contract means he’ll be in town for quite some time. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Prohibitive Contracts

While the 49ers have plenty of cap space for 2016—likely preventing them from having to make any cuts solely because of cap considerations—that doesn’t mean they can play fast and loose with contacts. Cut too many players with too much dead money remaining, and the team would find itself quickly in deep salary cap trouble. This is what ultimately ended the 49ers’ glory day runs, when over-spending forced the departure of significant contributors in 1998 and 1999. You have to manage the cap well in order to continue to contend down the road.

That means that, while contracts aren’t fully guaranteed in the NFL, a large deal given to a player brings with it an implicit agreement that the team won’t arbitrarily cut a player for a few years. That makes these players pretty much impossible to cut, considering the dead money they would bring with them on the salary cap.

OT Joe Staley ($8.8 million in dead money)
WR Torrey Smith ($6.4 million in dead money)
LB NaVorro Bowman ($5.062 million in dead money)

And, to a lesser extent:

S Eric Reid ($2,698,422 in dead money)
C Daniel Kilgore ($675,000 in dead money)
TE Blake Bell ($378,849 in dead money)
RB Mike Davis ($351,585 in dead money)

Partially because of solid financial dealings in years past—and partially because a lot of the 49ers’ big-time players retired prior to the 2015 season—there aren’t that many large contracts lying around the 49ers, and none of the large ones really feel like lead weights. Only Staley is truly uncuttable, in that he would cost more money off the team than on it this year, and you wouldn’t want to cut Staley anyway; he’s still one of the top performers on the team.

Torrey Smith underwhelmed in his first season on the team, but that’s partially due to being misused. Smith was targeted only 62 times last season, and his previous career low was 92. If you spend the money to go out and get a deep threat, you might want to actually throw him the ball some. He’s overpaid based on what he did last year, but a move to a more open offense is likely to improve his value somewhat.

You could actually argue that NaVorro Bowman wasn’t quite his old self in 2015, as can be expected from a player coming back from a major knee injury after missing a year. He didn’t quite seem to have the same range as he did in 2012 or 2013, and hopefully, another year removed from the horrific injury he suffered will help him get back to the from that made him the best linebacker in football. Even 80 percent of Bowman was enough to make the All-Pro team this past year, however, so he’s not going anywhere any time soon.

The other four names are less locks on the 49ers, thanks to their wide-open salary cap position, than they would be on, say, the New Orleans Saints and their terrible salary cap situation. It’s easier to see the 49ers filling up on running backs and deciding to eat Davis’ dead money than a team that is scrounging for every penny it can find. Nevertheless, all four players would generate more in dead money than they would provide in cap savings, so they would have to be pretty conclusively outplayed to miss the 2016 roster. Call them locks unless the team goes absolutely wild in free agency.

All cap hits courtesy of Over the Cap.

Next: Solid 2015 Seasons

Aaron Lynch looks like a key player in the pass rush for years to come. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Solid 2015 Seasons

Ideally, your entire 53-man roster would be a lock simply from having players in the upper class of their position around the league. Forget about contracts and draft picks and other considerations; if you’re a good football player, you deserve to be on the roster.

We’re excluding people from this list who appeared on previous lists, like Staley and Bowman, as well as players who aren’t under contract for next season, like Ian Williams or Anquan Boldin. These are simply the players who could be cut, financially, but won’t, because they’re really good at football.

LB Aaron Lynch
OG Andrew Tiller
RB Carlos Hyde
CB Tramaine Brock
DL Quinton Dial
DL Tank Carradine
CB Dontae Johnson

The list isn’t as long as some might hope. The only real steal at any position is Aaron Lynch, who looks to be a pass-rushing guru for years to come, and is currently under contract through the 2017 season. He’ll be the lynchpin for the pass rush for years to come, assuming he keeps playing as he’s been playing.

No one else lives up to Lynch’s reputation, but solid play elsewhere should ensure roster spots for a number of other notable players. Before he got hurt, Carlos Hyde was running the ball quite well, averaging 4.1 yards per carry. He’ll have to catch the ball more in Kelly’s system, but he should be a staple on the offense next year. The offensive line improved notably when Andrew Tiller came in for Jordan Devey; Tiller hasn’t locked up a starting spot in 2016, but his performance should be more than enough to keep him on the 53-man roster. Tramaine Brock was the top cornerback on the team in 2015—he really would be best suited as a number-two cornerback, but that’s more than enough to earn himself a spot on the roster.

The last three are more subjective, and I could easily see rationa

l minds disagreeing with them. Dial just squeaked on to my list—there were some moments where he seemed to get gassed, and there are some points on coaches film where you see him getting blasted off the point of attack. However, I feel he had more ups than downs, showing an ability to blow through run-blockers and hold the point of attack. I wouldn’t even consider having him miss the 2016 roster.

Carrdaine and Johnson had trouble seeing the field at points in 2015, but considering the overall questionable decision making of the 49ers’ coaching staff, I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt. When they did get time on the field, both stood out to me. Both are also young enough that I think they’ll continue to trend positive going forward.

Next: Off Years in 2015, On the Team in 2016?

Could the arrival of Chip Kelly save Colin Kaepernick’s 49ers career? Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Veteran Exemptions

Sometimes, players have off seasons. Maybe that’s the first sign of decline, maybe its players being exposed, or maybe they weren’t really all that good to begin with. Other times, however, bad years happen—players get hurt, players get put out of position and players sometimes just have off years.

Here are two players who will want to forget 2015, but should still be on the roster in 2016.

There’s no denying that QB Colin Kaepernick is overpaid based on his performance from the last two seasons. He’s set to count $15.9 million against the cap next year, substantially more than the likes of Blaine Gabbert, Nick Foles or Johnny Manziel. It’s not saying much when those are the sorts of quarterbacks you can be compared too, either.

If the 49ers were in any sort of salary cap trouble, then Kaepernick would be a goner. If they even had less than $40 million free, Kaepernick’s salary hit could be better used to sign a free agent on the offensive line or at receiver.

However, the 49ers are in an interesting situation. They have the third-most cap space in the league, so they don’t particularly need to free up any room. They’re bringing in a new offensive system that, at first blush, is more in line with Kaepernick’s talents than that of either Greg Roman or Geep Chryst.

Kaepernick was also injured for much of last season. He played for at least a month with a torn ligament in his left thumb, a torn labrum in his left shoulder and an undisclosed knee injury, all of which required surgery after Kaepernick’s season was over. That’s a lot to play through, especially behind a porous offensive line.

Remember, Kaepernick was a star as recently as 2013, and his 2014 campaign really wasn’t all that bad in retrospect. He still has a winning record as a quarterback, a very solid 88.4 career quarterback rating, and the added threat he brings with his legs.

That’s not to say he should be handed the starting quarterback position on a silver platter—he needs to show dramatically improved short-range accuracy to succeed in Chip Kelly’s system, and should rightfully be challenged by Gabbert or whoever else is on the roster, as they seek to determine who should start in 2016. It also shouldn’t necessarily rule out the possibility of drafting a quarterback high in the 2016 draft; if Kelly and Baalke think that a Jared Goff or Paxton Lynch can anchor the franchise for years to come, they should take that opportunity.

It’s enough, though, for the 49ers to give him another chance. There’s enough talent there that Kelly might be able to tap into and revitalize what once looked like a very promising career. With the salary cap situation being what it is, the 49ers could do worse than keeping him on the roster for a year.

The other name is less controversial: SS Antoine Bethea. With the emergence of Jaquiski Tartt and Eric Reid, you could argue that Bethea is superfluous. He also was injured seven games into the 2015 season and, at age 32 when the 2016 season begins, the 49ers could move on from him.

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Bryan Knowles is a staff writer on Niner Noise. Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.

Bryan Knowles

Bryan Knowles is a full-time sportswriter. He's been a fan of the San Francisco 49ers since the '80s, and still thinks the 49ers got rid of Joe Montana too soon.