San Francisco 49ers: An Early Look at Locks for the 2016 Roster

Prohibitive Contracts

While the 49ers have plenty of cap space for 2016—likely preventing them from having to make any cuts solely because of cap considerations—that doesn’t mean they can play fast and loose with contacts.  Cut too many players with too much dead money remaining, and the team would find itself quickly in deep salary cap trouble.  This is what ultimately ended the 49ers’ glory day runs, when over-spending forced the departure of significant contributors in 1998 and 1999.  You have to manage the cap well in order to continue to contend down the road.

That means that, while contracts aren’t fully guaranteed in the NFL, a large deal given to a player brings with it an implicit agreement that the team won’t arbitrarily cut a player for a few years.  That makes these players pretty much impossible to cut, considering the dead money they would bring with them on the salary cap.

• OT Joe Staley ($8.8 million in dead money)
• WR Torrey Smith ($6.4 million in dead money)
• LB NaVorro Bowman ($5.062 million in dead money)

And, to a lesser extent:

• S Eric Reid ($2,698,422 in dead money)
• C Daniel Kilgore ($675,000 in dead money)
• TE Blake Bell ($378,849 in dead money)
• RB Mike Davis ($351,585 in dead money)

Partially because of solid financial dealings in years past—and partially because a lot of the 49ers’ big-time players retired prior to the 2015 season—there aren’t that many large contracts lying around the 49ers, and none of the large ones really feel like lead weights.  Only Staley is truly uncuttable, in that he would cost more money off the team than on it this year, and you wouldn’t want to cut Staley anyway; he’s still one of the top performers on the team.

Torrey Smith underwhelmed in his first season on the team, but that’s partially due to being misused.  Smith was targeted only 62 times last season, and his previous career low was 92.  If you spend the money to go out and get a deep threat, you might want to actually throw him the ball some.  He’s overpaid based on what he did last year, but a move to a more open offense is likely to improve his value somewhat.

You could actually argue that NaVorro Bowman wasn’t quite his old self in 2015, as can be expected from a player coming back from a major knee injury after missing a year.  He didn’t quite seem to have the same range as he did in 2012 or 2013, and hopefully, another year removed from the horrific injury he suffered will help him get back to the from that made him the best linebacker in football.  Even 80 percent of Bowman was enough to make the All-Pro team this past year, however, so he’s not going anywhere any time soon.

The other four names are less locks on the 49ers, thanks to their wide-open salary cap position, than they would be on, say, the New Orleans Saints and their terrible salary cap situation.  It’s easier to see the 49ers filling up on running backs and deciding to eat Davis’ dead money than a team that is scrounging for every penny it can find.  Nevertheless, all four players would generate more in dead money than they would provide in cap savings, so they would have to be pretty conclusively outplayed to miss the 2016 roster.  Call them locks unless the team goes absolutely wild in free agency.

All cap hits courtesy of Over the Cap.

Next: Solid 2015 Seasons