The San Francisco 49ers are once again looking for a head coach. Will anyone want the job?
When the San Francisco 49ers last had a head coaching vacancy, they were one of the more enticing jobs available on the market. Colin Kaepernick was coming off of a down season, but looked to have more potential than the likes of Jay Cutler, Geno Smith or unproven young players like E.J. Manuel or David Carr. They were loaded with defensive talent, with names like Patrick Willis, Chris Borland and Aldon Smith forming the best linebacking corps in football –and many of those talented players were young. They also had the most stable front-office situation. They looked to be the cream of the crop, as far as vacancies went.
How things can change in a year. The 2014 offseason ended up being one of the most draining in NFL history, with talent retiring left and right, players being released and getting in trouble with the law. The sheer list of talent that left the 49ers—potential Hall of Famers like Willis and Justin Smith, franchise legends like Frank Gore, All-Pros like Aldon Smith and promising young players like Chris Borland—is essentially unprecedented. That was followed up by a disastrous 2015 season where players failed to develop, injuries abounded and the franchise muddled its way to a poor 5-11 showing.
So, for the second straight year, the 49ers are looking for a head coach, and at least this year, they’re more likely to make a splash. Rumors have connected them to ex-Eagles head coach and offensive whiz kid Chip Kelly, Bengals offensive coordinator and former Raiders head coach Hue Jackson and former NFL coaching greats like Mike Shanahan and Mike Holmgren.
To draw these coaches in, however, the 49ers will have to convince them that they have the best opening among the seven teams with head coaching opportunities, as they compete with the New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins. What do they have to offer that other teams don’t? Let’s take a look at six key areas—the quarterbacks, the overall talent level, the young building blocks, the front office and management situation, the strength of competition in the division and the overall salary cap health of the team.
Next: Is There Still Hope for Colin Kaepernick?
Quarterbacks
There’s still some hope that Colin Kaepernick might one day regain the form that led the 49ers to the Super Bowl, but that hope has faded to just a flicker at this point. You can point to the various injuries Kaepernick played through this season before landing on injured reserve and the poor state of the offensive line he was playing behind, but at a certain point, good quarterbacks produce. Kaepernick hasn’t looked like a starting NFL quarterback over the past two seasons, and while he still deserve a spot on some team’s roster and a chance to rehab the potential and talent that’s clearly still there, he should not be guaranteed a starting spot any more.
Blaine Gabbert performed better, but not massively so, and he doesn’t have the track record of success Kaepernick has. Neither quarterback pushed the ball down field, despite the addition of Torrey Smith; both ranked in the bottom 10 of qualified quarterbacks in terms of air yards per pass attempt, per Sporting Charts, which makes Gabbert’s middle-of-the-pack accuracy rating unimpressive and Kaepernick’s terrible accuracy unacceptable. The 49ers best option at quarterback next season might well be a rookie.
At least they’re in a better shape at the position than the Cleveland Browns. Kaepernick might be disappointing, but at least he’s not spending Saturdays before gameday wearing a false mustache in Vegas, like Johnny Manziel allegedly did. The Browns are poised to draft their third first-round quarterback in the last three seasons, and there’s a good chance they won’t even have Manziel on the roster due to his off-field incidents.
If you’re a head coaching prospect, however, the cream of the quarterback crop on the open head coaching jobs is two-time Super Bowl winner Eli Manning in New York. If you can’t have him, either of this year’s early drafted rookies—Jameis Winston in Tampa Bay or Marcus Mariota in Tennessee—looks pretty enticing, or the still young and improving Ryan Tannehill in Miami. As for Philadelphia, Sam Bradford is a free agent, though the Eagles could likely re-sign him if they wanted to. Without him, they are left with Mark Sanchez, which at the very least is less appealing.
Verdict: A Year or Two Behind Average
Next: How Does the Roster Look?
Overall Talent
There’s still talent on the roster, especially defensively. NaVorro Bowman wasn’t quite back to his old self after missing all of 2014 with knee injuries, but he showed more and more flashes of his old self as the season went on—if he can recover the speed that allowed him to run with tight ends after another year passes, then he’ll regain his standing as one of the top inside linebackers in the game. Couple that with budding pass-rushing superstar Aaron Lynch, and you still have some defensive pieces. The secondary still has a good coupling of safeties with Antonie Bethea and Eric Reid as well.
On offense, Carlos Hyde looked dynamic before going down with an injury, Joe Staley is still one of the top offensive tackles in the league and Torrey Smith remains a weapon, assuming the 49ers ever find someone who can throw him the football. The team isn’t nearly as loaded as it was when they went to three consecutive NFC Championship Games, but there’s still some talent here.
It’s underwhelming talent, however, when compared to some of the other open jobs out there. Despite some of Chip Kelly’s more questionable moves as de-facto general manager, he does leave the team with a significant amount of talent outside the quarterback position. They have a three-headed monster at running back, talent on the offensive line with Jason Peters, Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson, one of the league’s best defenders in Fletcher Cox, a very strong trio of linebackers and Byron Maxwell and Malcolm Jenkins lurking in the secondary. It’s the most talented opening from top to bottom by a significant margin. Remember, this team won 26 games over the last three years, so it’s not like it was a disaster of a situation.
A rung below is Miami, which has some building blocks in place. Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake are a terrific duo on the defensive line and Reshad Jones is one of the top safeties in football. Add Quinton Coples, Jelani Jenkins and Koa Misi, and you have the elements of a great defense in place.
The 49ers fall down with the Giants general level of talent. No, the 49ers don’t have anyone with the same punch as Odell Beckham, but they’re a bit deeper across the board. The Giants would rate much higher if players like Jason-Pierre Paul, Robert Ayers, Cullen Jenkins and Prince Amukamara were not free agents this season. The Giants will probably end up with the better roster due to picking and choosing which of their own free agents to sign, but in terms of the players actually under contract, the 49ers are right there with them.
Then you have the two teams that are already rebuilding in Tennessee and Tampa Bay. Would a coach prefer to take on an already-in-progress rebuilding project, or start from scratch in San Francisco? The Buccaneers boast some young defensive studs in Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy and a talented receiver in Mike Evans. The Titans have Jurrell Casey, who’s budding to be a superstar, as well as some other talent like Delanie Walker and Kendall Wright at receiver.
Again, the Browns probably trail the pack here, but at least they can point to Joe Thomas and maybe Joe Haden as their stars for the future.
The 49ers fall somewhere towards the bottom of the middle of the pack here—not enough, at least, to stand out among their contemporaries.
Verdict: Underwhelming
Next: How's the Youth Movement Going?
Young Players
On opening day, the 49ers were the eighth-youngest roster in the NFL, with an average age of just 25.83. Among the open positions, only the Dolphins were younger. However, in the 49ers’ case, this wasn’t a carefully laid plan—it was thrust upon them by the mass retirements and departures this past offseason.
Still, with 33 draft picks over the last three years, the 49ers still have a good amount of under-30 talent on the roster, most notably NaVorro Bowman. He’ll be joined by Aaron Lynch and Eric Reid on defense; Reid and Bowman have recent Pro Bowls on their resume while Lynch likely would have gone this year had the 49ers been a little better. On offense, Torrey Smith is still young while Carlos Hyde looks to be a successful pick at running back.
However, recent swings and misses—the entire 2012 draft class comes to mind, as does the disappointing development of high picks like Tank Carradine, Corey Lemonier, Marcus Martin and Brandon Thomas—doesn’t leave the 49ers in a fantastic position.
Again, it’s the Eagles who have the most under-30 talent among the teams looking for a new coach; the defense alone would probably put them in first with Fletcher Cox, Bennie Logan, Mychal Kendricks, Brandon Graham and Malcom Jenkins all on the roster. They’ve also got Ryan Matthews and DeMarco Murray at running back—Murray’s overpaid but still talented—as well as Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson on the offensive line. That’s plenty of building blocks for the next coach to work with.
Tampa Bay and Tennessee are right behind them, thanks to the high number of high draft picks they’ve had over
the past few years, even ignoring their first-round quarterbacks. Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David are going to be good for a long time in Tampa Bay, while the Titans have Jurrell Casey set to disrupt quarterbacks for the next decade. They’ve drafted better than the 49ers in recent years, and have the talent to show for it.
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Miami has an average level of young talent comparable to the 49ers; Reshad Jones is a great safety while players like Jordan Cameron and Jarvis Landry give Ryan Tannehill someone to throw to. They’ll need their draft picks to continue to play well, considering how much of the salary cap Ndamukong Suh takes up from here on out.
The Giants do not have a lot of young talent—their defense, especially, is either old, underwhelming or both. Odell Beckham is a great building block, and Justin Pugh and Weston Richburg are pieces the 49ers would live to have on the offensive line, but this isn’t a roster that’s set for the next five years.
The Browns come in dead last. They only have three players under 30 who you could even argue could form the basis of a competitive team in a few years—Joel Bitonio, Joe Haden and Barkevious Mingo. It’s a roster that pretty much needs to be gutted and started from scratch.
Verdict: Below Average
Next: How Does Trent Baalke Measure Up?
Front Office
The power struggle that went on in San Francisco two years ago, leading to Jim Harbaugh’s departure, can’t be great for purposes of recruiting a new coach. Nor does giving their latest head coach just one season to prove his worth inspire much confidence, even if the decision to cut free from Jim Tomsula was the right one. Prospective head coaches may not like the idea of coming into a situation where the general manager, Trent Baalke, clearly wields all the power.
However, Baalke has proven to be a more successful general manager than most of his colleagues among these seven teams. He’s proven to be far above average at navigating the draft board and earning extra draft picks, and with the notable exception of letting Delanie Walker go, most of his decisions on players to let go in free agency have been wise.
He’s been more hit and miss when it actually comes to acquiring talent. This year’s free agent crop was underwhelming—Shareece Wright looked like a poor move to begin with and proved to be even worse than that as the season went along, and players like Erik Pears and Darnell Dockett did not exactly positively impact the 49ers’ 2015 season. Still, this is the guy who traded a sixth-round pick for Anquan Boldin, who found Carlos Rogers and Donte Whitner in budget free agency, and is responsible for drafting Mike Iupati, NaVorro Bowman, Colin Kaepernick and Eric Reid—his hit-and-miss rate in the draft really isn’t that much worse than most teams.
His recent track record of success—or lack thereof—would have him in the lower half of all general managers, but his competition is low here. The Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns have vacancies at general manager, so who knows how competent their staffs will be. The Dolphins just promoted Chris Grier to the general manager position, so that’s still a question mark. Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht just fired the previous head coach after two seasons and has not had any successes in free agency so far. None of those spots seem particularly enticing.
That leaves two other general managers who at least are in the same conversation as Baalke. The Eagles have given the reigns back to Howie Roseman now that Chip Kelly has been fired. While Roseman has had some notable misses in his tenure—notably the assembly of the so-called “Dream Team” that flopped in 2011—he’s more responsible than Kelly for the deep roster currently in Philadelphia.
The Giants, meanwhile, have Jerry Reese, who is on the hot seat after three consecutive losing seasons. The Giants have historically been slow at making changes—Reese is just the third general manager of the club in the past 37 years—but Reese’s track record may have led to him being fired if he worked for a number of different teams. That slow hook, however, might be appealing to coaches, who know they would likely get at least three years to turn the Giants into contenders before getting fired.
In short, if Jed York honestly is taking a step back from the coaching search and other front office duties, the 49ers might actually have the best front office situation amongst the openings, despite grumblings from the fanbase that Baalke should be replaced. Maybe that isn’t surprising—teams with great front office situations generally don’t have head coaching openings to begin with.
Verdict: Best of a Weak Class
Next: What About the Competition?
Strength of Competition and Salary Cap
The strength of the division isn’t as major a deal for prospective head coaches, as teams fluctuate so much in the parity-driven NFL. They’d focus more on the pieces the teams already have in place, and let the rest of the division take care of itself.
Still, in the results-driven NFL, would you rather have six games against the likes of Seattle, Arizona and St. Louis, or get to play Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Houston six times a year? Only the Browns, stuck in the AFC North with two playoff teams and a recent Super Bowl winner, seem likely to have a harder schedule year in and year out than the 49ers will.
Verdict: At Least They’re Not Cleveland?
As for the salary cap, the 49ers can’t even claim a victory here. According to Over the Cap, they have $50.9 million free for the 2016 season—but they’re pipped to the line by Tampa Bay’s $51.9 million, and they’re only just ahead of New York’s $46.1 million and Tennessee’s $43.3 million. Still, that’s a lot of room to work with—the 49ers are in position to make massive changes this offseason thanks to tons of open cap space. At least they’re not in Miami’s shoes, as they only have $2.4 million available and only 42 players under contract.
Verdict: Plenty to Spend, but Not Unique
Next: What's the Final Verdict?
Final Verdict
So, do the 49ers have the worst job available, as Gregg Rosenthal and Will Brinson indicated? I disagree.
In seventh and last place, I have to put the Cleveland Browns. It’s an aging roster that needs to be torn down and rebuilt from the ground up. Their front office is an intriguing experiment, as they’ve hired a baseball guy, Paul DePodesta, to help reshape the franchise—but if I’m a head coach, I’m not sure I want to pin my reputation on such an experiment if I have other options. The division offers the toughest competition out there—and you pretty much have to use your top pick on a quarterback, with no other reasonable option on the roster. In addition, owner Jimmy Haslam will be on his fourth head coach since taking over the team in 2012. That doesn’t bode well for long-term job security. Thanks, but no thanks.
In fifth and sixth, respectively, I’d take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tennessee Titans, though that comes with a bit of an asterisk. They’re a year ahead on their rebuilding projects compared to the 49ers, which is a double-edged sword. They already have their quarterbacks of the future in place, which is good, but it’s not someone the new head coach got to choose. If you’re already a fan of Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota, that would bump these teams up over the 49ers, but you have to be a fan of the moves the previous regimes made in order to rank them that highly. Add in the fact that both teams just fired a head coach in year one of their new quarterback’s tenure, and you have to wonder about long-term security, as well. I like Winston a bit better than Mariota at this point, which is why I have Tampa Bay just ahead of Tennessee. Chip Kelly would likely have Mariota ahead of Winston, and thus would put the Titans ahead of both Tampa Bay and San Francisco. It’s all relative.
That leaves the San Francisco 49ers in fourth place—higher than most other online rankings have them. The 49ers have more than $50 million of cap space, possibly as many as 12 draft picks if all of Over the Cap’s projected compensatory picks pan out, and some talent already on the roster. It seems undeniable that the situation is better than the one in Cleveland, and it allows a head coach more control over the situation than the rebuilding efforts in Tampa Bay or Tennessee. The inferior quarterback situation compared to Mariota or Winston is definitely a negative indicator, but the 49ers are a prime situation for a new coach to put their fingerprint on the team for years to come, for good or ill.
This gives a head coach more options. If you take over the Buccaneers or Titans job, you’re sort of stuck following the blueprints that Lovie Smith or Ken Whisenhunt laid out; going in a new direction undermines any progress that was made this last year. With the 49ers, a coach can help set the direction from the start. Is Colin Kaepernick the quarterback, or a high draft choice? Do you keep Ahmad Brooks as a veteran linebacker, or cut him and draft a pass rusher highly? How many early picks do you use on the offensive line? The 49ers have more question marks, which is bad, but it does allow a coach more control over how to fix the team. A coach can live or die by their own merits, not based on what the previous coach left them with.
Obviously, the 49ers’ situation drops more if the new head coach has issues dealing with Trent Baalke, and it’s possible I’m underrating the effect this year’s front office struggles will have on the team’s reputation among head coaching candidates. I’m just of the mind that, if I have to take over a rebuilding team, I want to get in on the ground floor, rather than take over a project half-completed by a previous, fired regime.
Of course, given the choice, I’d rather not have a rebuilding team at all. That’s why the Miami Dolphins come in third—a promising, if not significantly above-average quarterback in Ryan Tannehill with a decently talented roster around him is something that can be competitive in 2016. They can’t rank any higher, though, because of their horrible salary cap situation—some talent may have to go in order just to sign their draft picks in 2016.
I have the New York Giants in second place, because having a very good quarterback like Eli Manning means a lot. They also have a patient ownership, giving a new head coach time to get the Giants back to their winning ways. There are some big decisions to be made in free agency, and it’s all taking place in the biggest media market in the league, but the team has the flexibility to make moves and be competitive immediately in a weak division.
Still, if I’m a head coaching candidate, I’m taking the best roster I can find and then trying to add a quarterback to it, which means I’m coaching the Philadelphia Eagles. They’re only one year removed from back-to-back 10-6 seasons, and they were a not-horrible 7-9 this year. They’ve got a number of intriguing assets already on the roster, though many of them were taken specifically to fit Chip Kelly’s offense. If I had to make a prediction, I’d say they were the next of these seven teams to make a playoff appearance. That makes them the most enticing job on the market.
Next: Who Remains a Head Coaching Candidate?
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Bryan Knowles is pleased to be here at Niner Noise! He’s looking forward to rambling on for far too many words about things. For more abbreviated takes, follow him @BryKno on Twitter.