The San Francisco 49ers have some decisions to make regarding the personnel who will be representing the team in 2016. Niner Noise takes a look at seven players who are on the hot seat at the conclusion of this season.
Several factors will go into who is kept on the team and who will be released – such as current contract and salary cap hit, age, past production and viewpoint of future production, and team need.
The following seven current 49ers are on the hot seat due to them failing some or all of the above factors. How management views these particular players is up for debate. Nothing of course will be decided until after the final season review and exit interviews are conducted. Any front office or coaching changes would also change things.
Here are the following seven 49ers players who sit on the hot seat (in no particular order).
Next: Colin Kaepernick
Quarterback Colin Kaepernick
Kaepernick is the most obvious person on this list. He has the highest cap number going into 2016 ($15,890,753) and his performance was so poor this season that he was benched in Week 9. In his first eight games, he threw for only six touchdowns against five interceptions and repeatedly looked like a deer-in-the-headlights in the pocket where he struggled to get the ball down the field and took a bunch of drive-killing sacks.
Despite his efforts to improve over the previous offseason to improve his mechanics and his footwork (with former NFL MVP Kurt Warner), this failed to show in games, and it seems defenses have figured out how to defend him to the point where he just cannot be an effective NFL QB.
A divorce seems like the inevitable conclusion to the Kaepernick saga. The 49ers have the option to release or trade him prior to his contract becoming guaranteed on April 1 2016, which looks 99 percent certain barring some massive front office and coaching shake-up.
The 49ers most likely will go with Blaine Gabbert as the starter for 2016, and draft a QB at a point in the draft that is deemed to be the best value for the organization long term.
Next: Corey Lemonier
Outside Linebacker Corey Lemonier
Lemonier is a draft-bust at this point of his career. He should be taken off the hot seat and sent to the scrap heap. He was the 49ers third-round pick (88th overall) in the 2013 draft, and has since contributed one total sack and 27 tackles in his career.
The 2015 season has not seen any improvement in his play. Per Pro Football Focus, he ranks 101st out of 107 qualified edge defenders in the NFL, with a poor plus-46.7 grade (from a zero to 100 point scale).
Lemonier has spent six games this year as one of the inactive players, and even with his cap-friendly figure for 2016 being a mere $820,880, it is time for the 49ers to admit another draft mistake with him and set him free of the hot seat.
Next: Phil Dawson
Kicker Phil Dawson
It is harsh to say that Dawson is on the 49ers hot seat after he has had another outstanding season. He is arguably the special teams Most Valuable Player, having made 20-23 of his field goal attempts this season, with two of those misses having been blocked.
Per KNBR.com, Dawson wishes to return for his 18th season:
Phil Dawson says he'd like to return for 18th season https://t.co/t6VccveVTB #49ers #NFL pic.twitter.com/HhHdW4RAZr
— KNBR (@KNBR) January 2, 2016
Dawson wanting to return to the 49ers is commendable. However, Dawson becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season. He will be 41 in late January, and his cap hit this year has been $3,067,000, which is highly unlikely to be spent again in 2016 on a kicker.
The obvious scenario is to let him walk and to either get a young kicker in the draft or bring in a cheaper and younger version of Dawson.
It will be sad to see Dawson leave, however saving this money can be used for other need positions. The 49ers need depth and better skill players in several areas, most namely the offensive and defensive lines.
Next: Ahmad Brooks
Outside Linebacker Ahmad Brooks
It seems like Brooks has been on the 49ers hot seat forever. He has been an enigma as a player – he has flashed some outstanding play, but then he flashes mental mistakes by the ways of penalties and/or missed tackles.
In his seven years as a 49er, he has amassed 45.5 sacks, which equates to a 6.5 yearly average, which is respectable. However, per Pro Football Focus he ranks 85th out of 107 qualified edge defenders with an overall low grade of plus-53.6 (from a zero to 100 point scale).
Brooks excels against the run (plus-82.4) but his pass rush grade is unacceptable at plus-47.0 for a guy who is relied upon to rush the passer. With Brooks carrying the second-highest 2016 cap number on the team at $9,698,750, the 49ers will likely finally shove Brooks off the hot seat and into oblivion.
Next: Tank Carradine
Defensive Tackle Tank Carradine
Carradine is another of General Manager Trent Baalke’s draft busts. Drafted in the second round (40th overall) of the 2013 draft, Carradine has just four sacks and 29 tackles to his credit in his career thus far.
When the 49ers could have used a big year from him in 2015 after the exodus of defensive personnel, he has responded with just one paltry sack, and has been inactive for three games. With nearly three seasons of experience now, the production is simply not there and he is another 49er who can be removed off the hot seat and jettisoned elsewhere.
By releasing Carradine the 49ers will save $1,574,262 on the 2016 salary cap. His production doesn’t justify this cap figure, and he no longer deserves to be a part of the 49ers roster.
He is another player the 49ers front office just needs to admit they made a mistake on and cut ties. This money saved can be used again for another area of need, and can be addressed via the draft or free agency.
Next: Erik Pears
Right Tackle Erik Pears
Has there been a more disappointing 49er this season than Pears? Pears was thrust into the 49ers starting offensive line unit after the sudden retirement of Anthony Davis.
Rather than taking on the challenge of replacing a former Pro-Bowler, Pears took on a huge regression. He was part of the right-side of the offensive line with right guard Jordan Devey that leaked like a sieve, and couldn’t block anyone.
Per Pro Football Focus, Pears has a terrible plus-42.6 grade (from a zero to 100 point scale) and is one of the league-leaders in sacks allowed. With the injury to left guard Alex Boone, Pears was moved to right guard and his grade has gone down further to a plus-39.5.
Pears carries a $2,350,000 cap figure into 2016 which the 49ers should have no interest in paying. Pears was on the hot seat after Week 2 and you can’t carry a woeful right tackle and expect much success by your QB.
The 49ers really need Davis to come out of his retirement and return to the team in 2016. Even if he decides to prolong his retirement, Pears needs to be released or traded.
Next: Antoine Bethea
Safety Antoine Bethea
Perhaps it’s a little harsh to label Bethea as being on the hot seat, but when you analyze the roster going into 2016, he really is.
Bethea was playing below-average up to his season-ending torn pectoral muscle injury in Week 7. Per Pro Football Focus, he was ranked 73rd out of 87 qualified safeties with a plus-60.2 grade (from a zero to 100 point scale). His replacement, rookie Jaquiski Tartt, despite some issues, has a plus-54.9 grade with similar numbers in run and pass coverage.
The two factors that make Bethea on the hot seat are his age (he will be 32 in July) and his 2016 cap figure of $6,250,000. It is hard to see the 49ers retaining Bethea at this cap number, when they have a ready-made replacement in Tartt who has just a $1,144,776 cap hit.
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Letting Bethea go would put a huge void in experience in the 49ers secondary, so this move would certainly be with risk. It is difficult to know how he will recover from his serious injury, and whether he can continue to play at a high enough level. However, it is possible that Bethea re-structures his contract to lower his 2016 cap number.
Once again, the 49ers could definitely use the $5 million in cap savings to address their laundry-list of needs. But they could decide that losing Bethea’s experience is too big a loss to overcome. That would make sense. They can save money elsewhere on the roster if they so desire.
Next: Rams vs. 49ers: Why Week 17 Matters for San Francisco
These seven 49ers are currently on the hot seat, and the bulk of them should be released to give other players a chance. They have all had a chance to succeed with the organization, and for various reasons have failed to do so (excluding Bethea, Dawson, and 2012-13 version of Kaepernick).
The 49ers have a new opportunity in 2016. The 49ers front office need to take advantage of this opportunity.
All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com, spotrac.com, Overthecap.com, 49ers.com and ESPN.com unless otherwise indicated.