For every one or two steps forward the 49ers have made this season they seem to take three steps back.  We were sold by head coach Mike Singletary and GM Scot McCloughan that this year’s version of the Red and Gold would be different than the past.  Having gone through seven years of futility and no winning records I bought into what Singletary was selling.  Everything was there for the Niners to succeed but for every progress there has been regression.  We had drafted a prolific wide receiver in Michael Crabtree.  We know what ensued after that and have only had Crabtree for three games but he has contributed.  Could you imagine what he would be doing now if he had been in training camp?

Shaun Hill was named the starter before the season and like his predecessor he lost his job.  I thought Hill gave us the best chance to win especially with Alex Smith being out of football all of last year due to shoulder surgery and that fact that he had little or no confidence being a quarterback because of his ups and downs as a starter and the feud he had with former head coach Mike Nolan.  I thought Smith was done as a starter in the NFL and labeled him the newest number one draft bust.  Fast forward to week seven with Smith starting the second half against the Texans and looked as if we actually had that number one pick QB.  Smith looked average against the Colts, not leading any scoring drives in the second half and against the Titans he had four turnovers and four sacks.  But could you imagine what those three games could have turned out to be like had Hill been the starter?  Hill hated being labeled a game manager but really that is what he was.  Hand the ball off to Frank Gore, if you do drop back to pass release it after three seconds and don’t turnover the football!  Hill accomplished all of this in the first four games with a 3-1 record.  However even in those four games the offense was ugly and most importantly the offense did not need to come back from big deficits.  Even though he has made mistakes and has not won any games this year for the Niners Smith is the starter for the rest of the season and maybe the future for the 49ers.  A lot depends on how he does in the second half of the season.  Could you imagine what Smith could have been doing if he was named the starter early in the season?

Singletary took his time hiring an offensive coordinator in the off season.  He interviewed many and got rejected by one, Scott Linehan who is the Lions current play caller. The 49ers play the Lions in week 16 at home.  Eventually Singletary settled on Jimmy Raye who is veteran of the NFL and has experience.  Most importantly I think he was hired because of his age, 63.  The 49ers need stability at offensive coordinator and hiring a well seasoned play caller in Raye provides that.  I highly doubt he will be offered any other coaching jobs no matter how well he does because of his age.  Singletary and Raye wanted to install a run heavy offense that worked at first but when it came to having the offense score two or more touchdowns the offense failed.  Hill does not have a deep arm and with his lack of mobility and the poor play of the offensive line was reasons why much could not get done in the passing game.  Now with Smith as the starter Raye is adapting to his skills and using more spread formations with both runs and passes.  Smith has a deeper arm and great mobility, he just needs to be able to put it all together in one game.  The Bears game on Thursday will be a good test.  Could you imagine what the 49ers could have been like right now had Raye opened up the playbook earlier?

There is certainly a pattern to the 2009 49ers half through the season; they start off games well and get a flow going but they lack the ability to finish games in the second half.  Certain decisions could have been made earlier like realizing that you don’t have a good offensive line so running the football all the time won’t work especially if Gore is not in the backfield.  The defense has been scorched for big plays this season but has played well over all.  The offense does no favors to the defense by constantly sending them back onto the field after three and outs.  The 49ers are almost there and while everyone thought this was a playoff bound team it has become evident that more work, experience and gelling is needed.

Prospectors Prediction

The rest of the way the 49ers have four games at home and four games on the road.  They have a good chance to end their losing streak at home against the Bears on Thursday but will have to travel to Green Bay in week 11.  The Niners will be coming off of nine days rest so the potential for a winning streak is high.  The next three weeks are the Jaguars, Seahawks and Cardinals whom the Niners are capable of all beating.  But with the play of the Niners in the first half a loss or two will be bunched in between there.  Most likely the Cardinals at the Stick in week 14 because they are undefeated playing on the road.  The Eagles will poise an up hill battle and the Lions and Rams should be automatic wins.

The Niners will close in on the Cardinals in the NFC West but those early losses will prevent us from the playoffs. Final record 8-8.

Alex Smith named the starter

Now I can see why it took Mike Singletary so long to make a decision in training camp about the 49ers starting quarterback.  Singletary named long forgotten and former number one draft pick Alex Smith as the starter against the Colts on Sunday.  In the back of his mind he probably had Smith as the starter all along but went with the proven quarterback Shaun Hill who is 8-6 as a starter for the Niners.  Singletary made the announcement yesterday on October 26.  Last year on October 26 in Singletary’s first game as interim head coach he pulled quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan out of the game against the Seahawks and put in Hill who started the rest of the season and up until week seven of this year.  Is there something about the week before Halloween that makes Singletary feel as if he needs to make a change at quarterback?  I wonder what he will do next year?  Joking aside, making a quarterback change on the same day as you did last year is not a sign of Singletary being erratic with who should start as the quarterback but a sign that the organization is erratic in trying to find a starting quarterback that can be successful in the NFL and lead a powerful offense.

The peaks and valleys that has been Alex Smith’s career is at about its third peak after years of being stuck down in the valley.  Watching Smith run the 49ers offense and pass for three touchdowns against the Texans I was more concerned about the 49ers winning the game than who was under center.  After watching the 49ers lose I was able to take it all in and realized that Smith who had not played in the regular season since November 12, 2007 had just showed that the 49ers do have a passing game.  With Smith’s success and Singletary known for wanting to put the best 11 players on the field that he believes gives the team the best chance to win, see Michael Crabtree, I was almost certain that Singletary would name Smith the starter.  Coming to that conclusion and hearing the news this morning I am still nervous about Smith being named the QB.

Reasons to be worried:

• Smith did come into the game against the Texans down by 21 points and almost lead the team to a comeback win.  But how much of that was the Texans defense coming out after half-time and taking off the third quarter thinking they had the game won especially with a backup quarterback inserted into the game?

• With the 49er down by three touchdowns offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye went away from running the football and was forced to pass to lessen the deficit.  Raye had Smith mostly running the spread offense which Smith is clearly comfortable with as he ran the same offense while at the University of Utah.  With running back Frank Gore back in the lineup after missing three games with an injury I doubt Raye will deviate away from his run, run, run mentality but with Smith as the starter he might want to call more plays in the spread offense formation to make Smith effective against the Colts defense.

• The 49ers offensive line is a wreck on the right side and it showed against the Texans.  Without stone foot Shaun Hill dropping back in the second-half the line did improve their play as Smith did not get sacked but that has more to do with Smith’s scrambling abilities than the play of the line.  Smith will be running often against the Colts as the defense will look to get after Smith who will be making his first start in almost two years.

• It will be interesting to see how Smith plays for a full game.  Smith has been called a cerebral quarterback but has been criticized for thinking too much which resulted in sacks and bad decisions. As Smith found his team down by three scores he had to score as quickly as possible which left no time for Smith to think about the play too much and rely on his instincts which were right on almost all of the plays expect for his last pass which was intercepted and ended the game.  I am not sure how Smith will handle running a normal offense that is not in hurry up mode to try to quickly score.

Reason to be excited:

• Even though Alex Smith was drafted in 2005 he is only 25 years old.  That is young by NFL QB standards so I can see why the 49ers held onto Smith knowing his potential and knowing that his first four seasons in the NFL have been a bumping road.  Smith was named the starter half way through his rookie season in 2005, took all the snaps under center in 2006, played hurt for seven games in 2007, was on injured reserve in 2008 and was a backup through the first seven weeks of the season this year.  Most quarterbacks stay on the bench for their first two to three years learning the offense and adjusting to the NFL and find success once on the field (see Aaron Rodgers, Carson Palmer).  Smith found himself on a horrible 49ers team looking for anyone to play center and was forced out onto the field.  Unless you are Peyton Manning most starting rookie quarterbacks don’t mature into long NFL careers.  Smith has now had his time to learn and regain his confidence.  Hopefully he can translate all of his knowledge into a successful offense.

• After two straight games where the defense was the main reason for the losses which in turn made the offense anemic forcing them to try to come back from big deficits maybe this is the type of change the 49ers offense needs.  Shaun Hill did his job in managing the game and ran the offense well while they were ahead or down by a few points but when it came time for the offense to comeback and score Hill could not get the job done. Smith showed he can remain calm under pressure situations when down by a big deficit.

• One of the reasons for Smith being named the starter was that he was impressive in training camp and continued impressing in practice.  Both don’t count and are meaningless but Singletary knows what Smith is capable of doing and he showed that against the Texans.  Smith also sacrificed more than $16 million to remain with the Niners to prove not only to himself but to the organization that drafted him, the 49er Faithful and to all of those, including me, who wrote him off as another number one pick draft bust.

Now is your time to shine Alex, the 49er Faithful wait for you to change our minds about what you are capable of doing on the field.  Let’s hope he gets things started on Sunday against the Colts and ends the 49ers two game losing streak.

Remember on April 25^th when it was time for the 49ers to select in the NFL draft at the tenth spot?  Remember thinking, Michael Crabtree is available! Draft Crabtree! Remember when it happened and we saw Crabtree holding up the 49ers jersey and we thought we finally had our heir apparent to Jerry Rice?  Remember when he signed with the team and reported to training camp on-time and…what a second, what happened?  Where is MCT…will he ever be a Niner…

Nobody but Crabtree himself can answer that.  With week 1 this Sunday I doubt the issue will be resolved soon.  So, until then no more mentioning Crabtree unless he signs or says he is sitting out the season.  It’s alright we don’t need him:

Isaac Bruce:  The ageless wonder is back after leading the 49ers in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns last year.  Can he repeat last year’s effort? Chances are probably not but until when and if Crabtree signs Bruce is the leader of the receiving corps.  It will be interesting to see how Jimmy Raye uses Bruce and if Shaun Hill continues to look to Bruce as his number one target.

Josh Morgan:  This is the 49ers up-and-coming wide receiver.  He did not have a spectacular campaign last year (20 receptions, 319 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns) but he has shown the big-play making ability the 49ers have lacked since the days of T.O. Morgan will breakout this year and make himself a household name, but don’t expect much from him in the first three weeks of the season as he adjusts to being a full-time starter.

Brandon Jones:  The 49ers biggest free-agent signing this past off-season was overshadowed by the selection of another receiver in the draft.  Since then Jones has not made much noise.  Probably because he was not that big of a free-agent signing. To the 49ers however he was because he was one of a few players they signed to bolster the offense.  Jones was a number 3 receiver when he was with the Titians and it looks like he will be no higher than third on the 49ers depth chart.  We might see some big scoring plays from Jones this year but other than that is value will be minimal to the 49ers offense.  He is still recovering from shoulder surgery he had in August.

Jason Hill:  Hill to Hill, that was the story last year after Hill, the Shaun one, took over the starting job under center and he quickly found his favorite target  Hill, the Jason one.  He had his breakout game against the Cardinals last year when the 49ers failed to come from behind to pull out the win.  Hill will be listed as the number 3 or 4 receiver but if Morgan or Bruce falter, Hill has shown he has the skills to be a starting receiver.

Arnaz Battle:  The other ageless wonder on the 49ers receiving corp.  Okay, he is only entering his seventh season in the NFL but all seven have been with the 49ers roster so he seems much older.  Unlike Bruce though he will not see a lot of playing time unless the 49ers have multiple injuries at the position.  His job on the 49ers roster will be to mentor the young receiving corps while Bruce gets all the action.

Michael Spurlock: If not for the “Taser” formation (Raye’s version of the WildCat) he probably would not have made the 49ers roster.  It helps that he also returns kick-offs.

Vernon Davis:  It is all or nothing for Davis this year.  Had he been drafted later in the first-round or anytime in or after the second-round his lackluster play would not be that big of a deal.  But the 49ers drafted him with the sixth pick in 2006 and his career totals (103 receptions, 1,132 receiving yards,  9 touchdowns) look like a top-ten draft pick a tight end should have in a season.  Coming into his fourth season he HAS to prove he was worth the pick otherwise the 49ers again look like a laughing stock when it comes to picking offensive players with their first-pick.  Offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye used TE Tony Gonzalez a lot when he was the Chiefs coordinator 1998-2000.  Davis will benefit from Raye’s game plan of running the football while using his tight end as a receiving threat.  Davis has bought into Raye’s play calling after having a successful preseason and training camp and he certainly has bought into Singletary even after that rocky start they had last year when Singletary sent Davis to the locker room during the game.

Delanie Walker:  Mostly will be used as a backup and in run blocking.  He is good at catching the football but don’t expect significant playing time for Walker.

Offensive line:

The 49ers gave up a league high 55 sacks last year.  I agree the 49ers pass protection was horrible last year but there were a lot of factors which was J.T. Duh!Sullivan who seemed like he was trying to hold onto the football until the quarter ended and Mike Martz and his offense which seems to try to kill every quarterback that has played in his system.  The line has improved this year and with Duh!Sullivan and Martz gone so there is no reason to think the 49ers will have the one of the better offensive lines in the league:

LT Joe Staley:  He has been the anchor on the line every since he was drafted by the 49ers in 2007.  Since then he has started all 32 games of his career.  In 2007 he started every game at right tackle as a rookie before moving to the other end of the line last year to replace the injury-prone Jonas Jennings. The 49ers awarded Staley for his hard work with a six-year contract extension that will keep him with the club through 2017.  Fat new contract and entering his third NFL season, he will be a named to the Pro-Bowl this year.

LG Adam Baas:  Baas played well in the nine games he started last year and we should expect more of the same from him this year as he is developing into a solid left guard.  The only thing that concerns me is him missing most of the preseason after tearing his right pectoral muscle.  Let’s hope he has fully recovered.

C Eric Heitmann: Another versatile lineman like Staley who can play multiple positions.  He has started 98 games for the 49ers at center, left guard and right guard.  The last two years he has laid claim as the starting center which he has played well enough to earn the 49ers best offensive lineman the last two years. After signing a contract extension that will keep him with the 49ers until 2011, Heitmann could join Staley on the Pro-Bowl roster this year.

RG Chilo Rachal:  The 49ers selected Rachal with their second pick in 2008 so this is the year he gets to show why he was a highly touted lineman.  The coaches on the 49ers think Rachal has great pass and rush blocking abilities and he showed some of that promise last year when Singletary had him start the last six games of the season.  He needs to show the 49er Faithful he can handle a full season as a starter.

LT Adam Snyder:  Free-agent Marvel Smith was suppose to challenge Snyder for the starting job in training camp but Smith had to retire due to persistent back injuries.  Now Snyder is the starter by default but he has started games before and been able to hold his own.  But there is something there that the coaches see in Snyder that make them uneasy about him.  What other reason would they have for bringing in Smith?  Then again the 49ers didn’t draft an offensive lineman that was a big need at the guard position.

Five Keys to Success:

1.  Vernon Davis, time to produce.  You can have all the muscles and athletic ability in the world but if you don’t show it in your receiving stats you are irrelevant.

2.  Josh Morgan will get out to a slow start but it is how he handles himself after the first couple games and the possibility of being benched if he does not produce mid-way through the season that will determine what type of receiver he develops into and how he fits into the 49ers plans. The potential is there and right now we need his potential to develop into playmaking abilities.

3.  So such of the 49ers success lies in the offensive linemen hands this season.  They will have to show it was not all their fault for the league high 55 sacks they gave up last year.  And if Raye wants to run the ball 60% of the time they need to play exceptionally well. No excuses, all of the starting o-line were on the roster last year.

4.  Joe Staley is showing why he has started every game since his rookie year.  If the rest of the lineman, especially Rachal, follow his lead the 49ers could be developing an impressive offensive line led by Staley.

5.   Bruce needs to stay healthy.  He has not been injury prone in his career but he is old as mold and fragile so the next big hit could be his last.  And if Crabtree is not on the roster the 49ers will be in trouble.

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