Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

While mock drafts are fun and take up a lot of our offseason time, they will all blow up as soon as Roger Goodell announces there has been a trade. We have heard rumors for just about every team moving up or down in the draft, but there are a few that I think will stick.

Trading Down

6. Cleveland Browns- The Browns need a lot of help and with the new front office they could use as many picks as they could get. If there is one thing this team needs it’s a talented WR or the quarterback of the future. They are without a second round pick and with the amount of teams wanting to move up to take a tackle this is a perfect storm for the Browns.

12. Miami Dolphins- I think they will get the trade done for Brandon Albert before Friday. With that taking away the need at tackle, the top need switches to cornerback. Dee Milliner should be off the board, and there are a lot of question marks that should keep the rest of the corners out of the top half of the first round.

22. St. Louis Rams- They also pick at 16 and will likely solve one of their top 2 needs (safety and wide receiver) with that selection. 22 is far enough back where teams early in the second will start moving up and Fisher always likes to have extra picks to work with.

29. New England Patriots- They don’t have a pick in rounds 4-6 so they will be trading down at some point. 29 is a good spot for a team to move up to take a quarterback. Of all the teams likely to trade down, they are the most likely. With needs in the secondary and wide receiver there will plenty of prospects in the second round.

Trading up

11. San Diego- They absolutely have to grab a top 5 lineman. The reports are they want Lane Johnson, but so does Arizona at 7. If he gets past Detroit at 5 I think you see them pull the trigger and trade up to 6 to get their man. The only way they don’t trade up is if Cooper, Warmack, and Johnson are still available at 6 and they think one will make it to 11.

30. Atlanta Falcons- This would come as no surprise for a team that was only a play away from the Superbowl. They have been rumored to be wanting a top-flight corner and they have been known to give up a lot to move up and grab “their guy” –see Julio Jones. Dee Milliner could easily slide into the 6-11 range and once that happens expect them to be making phone calls.

31. San Francisco- With both the 31^st and 34^thpicks in the draft along with 11 others the 49ers have more picks than roster spots. With needs on the defensive line and secondary, expect them to move up in the draft and take the players slotted high on their board. Don’t be surprised with the amount of picks they move up to take Tavon Austin as a luxury. He is unlike every other receiver on the roster and would give them an explosive playmaker very few teams have. I don’t think they will move into the top 10 unless they are winning the trade, but moving into the middle of the first round is not only possible but probable.

41. Buffalo Bills- Owner Ralph Wilson made it clear this was the year to move up and take a quarterback. I have a hard time believing they will select one at 8, especially with their interest in Matt Barkley. They will be the team to move back up into the first to grab either Barkley or Nassib and will hopefully, maybe, finally have a quarterback of the future.

Last offseason we saw the San Francisco 49ers make big additions to the wide receiving core, and this year we should expect more of the same. With players Randy Moss and Ted Ginn Jr. heading to free agency and Mario Manningham unlikely to be ready for training camp, the 49er WR core appears thin once again.

Last season the receiver position was addressed heavily in free agency before getting to the draft. Between not having a lot of projected cap room, and while having 11 draft picks plus potentially 3 more once compensatory picks are issued, it’s safe to say the 49ers focus on improving the roster will come through the draft only. (more…)

Credit: Kelley L Cox-US PRESSWIRE

During the free agency period 49ers GM Trent Baalke shocked many fans by signing wide receivers Randy Moss and Mario Manningham. The shocks were of the good kind, but were shock signings nonetheless because Moss did not play in the NFL last season and the 49ers were not expected to be a landing destination for Manningham.  Then the 49ers drafted receiver A.J. Jenkins with their first pick to add to a crowded receiving corps that includes those previously mentioned, in addition to Michael Crabtree, Kyle Williams, Ted Ginn Jr. and Brent Swain.  A crowded receiving corps is a good problem for Jim Harbaugh to have.  But was Jenkins drafted also as an insurance policy on Moss and Crabtree?

At the start of the draft, the 49ers were fully committed to drafting Jenkins if he was still available at the 30^th overall pick.  Baalke and his scouts recognized a player with great speed and hands who could give the 49ers offense a vertical receiving threat they lacked last season.  The slot position is supposed to be occupied by Moss, however, with so many of the unknowns that come with him the 49ers knew they could not just rely on the receiver.  Last season Braylon Edwardswas supposed to be the answer at the slot receiver but he proved ineffective because of injuries.  After that Ginn saw the most action at the slot position but he was not a consistent target defenses feared.  That’s where Jenkins comes in.

At training camp, the seven receivers will all be battling for what will most likely be only five or six receiving spots on the roster.  Jenkins, Crabtree and Manningham are three guaranteed locks to make the team.  You can throw Ginn in with the group as well since he is the 49ers main return man on punts and kickoffs. Despite what happen to Williams in the NFC Championship game he will most likely make the team as well.  That leaves Moss most likely battling for a roster spot with Swain.  One would think if Moss can show he still has good value as a receiver and can keep his ego in check, he would beat out Swain for a roster spot.  Maybe, but Moss will need to have a really great training camp, one that impresses Harbaugh and his coaches so much, they are forced to add him to the final roster.  Since we don’t know what we will get from Moss, he is really on par with Williams, Ginn and Swain in terms of making the team.  The big advantage Williams, Ginn and Swain have over Moss is all three not only give the 49ers value at receiver, but also at special teams.  At this point Jenkins looks like the best option for the slot position.

After Jenkins was drafted I wrote, “Michael Crabtree, you are now on notice.”  Crabtree will be the number one receiver at the start of the season, but the patience of Niner fans towards the receiver is wearing thin.  Over three seasons, Crabtree has started in 40 games compiling 176 receptions, 2,246 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns.  Not exactly number one receiver stats nor what we would expect from a 10^th overall draft pick.  Crabtree’s numbers have steadily increased in each of his three seasons in the league and he did have his best season in 2011.  However, Crabtree’s career best in receptions (72) and receiving yards (874) last season were erased in the playoffs.  In the two playoffs games he combined to put up a dud of five receptions for 28 yards and one touchdown.  Crabtree had a great opportunity in the playoffs to show he is a bona fide number one receiver but disappeared after he dropped three passes against the Saints and was not targeted until the third quarter of the Giants game.  One would think the Giants defense was reason for Crabtree’s disappearing act in the NFC Championship game.  However, all you need to do is look at Vernon Davis’ stat line in the game (3 receptions, 112 yards, two touchdowns) to know Crabtree could have made an impact but was not able to.

Crabtree has never played in a preseason game nor has he gone through a full training camp with the 49ers.  This might help explain why he is not putting up the production we all expect from him but that excuse can only be extended so far.  The former Texas Tech receiver is entering the fourth-year of his six-year contract.  With the way the 49ers played last season, the team might be committed to Crabtree contractually over the next three seasons but they will not wait around for him to put up number one receiver numbers.

This is why Jenkins was drafted.  As he learns how to play receiver in the NFL,  he will start at the slot position this season because it is a good fit for him because of his speed and great route running skills.  This will allow the 49ers not to have to lean on Jenkins to be the number one receiver.  Not yet at least.  Should Crabtree regress in 2012, expect Jenkins to take over as the number one receiver in 2013.