Why There’s Room for Hope for the San Francisco 49ers in 2016

The San Francisco 49ers are widely projected to be a very bad team in 2016 despite a flurry of offseason changes. While this may be the likely case, there are more than a few reasons why the Niners may actually be better than you think.

If the widespread majority of predictions come true in the 2016 NFL season, the San Francisco 49ers will likely be vying for a top-five draft pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. Heck, they might even be looking at No. 1 overall.

This would mean, barring a trade of course, the 49ers finished with the worst record on the upcoming season — a true indication of how far this franchise has fallen since the glory years between 2011 and 2013.

Heck, even ESPN is listing the Niners as non-favorites in all of their 16 regular season games this year.

“Don’t judge a book by it’s cover,” or so the saying goes.

So what if the 49ers aren’t exactly as bad as everyone suggests? Just because the experts and pundits say San Francisco will be bad doesn’t actually mean this will happen, right?

Instead of following the common narrative, let’s take a “glass half full” look at the 49ers situation where it stands right now. And if you have a positive mindset, there may be more than a few reasons why fans might actually have some hope for 2016 after all.

A Young Roster

General manager Trent Baalke may never admit it, but the 49ers are going through a rebuilding phase right now.

While there’s no set schedule for how long a rebuilding phase lasts — just ask the Cleveland Browns — one could positively assume the Niners are gearing up to be good again two- or three-plus years.

To do this, the 49ers are focusing more on their young talent than holding onto aging players in most areas. This, perhaps, explains why Baalke wasn’t overly aggressive in free agency. Why pay top dollar, in what was considered a relatively weak FA class, when a team can focus on developing on-roster players?

And that’s what the Niners are going to do.

According to Fox Sports, the average age of the 49ers’ current 90-man roster is 23 years old and boasts an average of just 3.1 seasons of NFL experience.

That’s awfully young and inexperienced.

Sure, not all of these players will pan out at the pro level. Some, even high-level draft picks, may turn bust. But there’s a good chance a handful of them develop into a solid core group around which the 49ers continue to build the franchise in coming years.

“I think there’s a good, young nucleus of players with a few key veteran players still on this roster,” Baalke said, via Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area. “(I’m) very pleased with the young group last year that came in and got a lot of play time. The only way these guys get better is to get on the field.”

You also have to give Baalke credit for addressing the area in which games are so often won or lost: the trenches. He did that during the draft.

Players, especially units, need time to jell. A good coaching staff — let’s hope the Niners have one — will go a long way in ensuring this happens.

Just take a look at the cross-bay Oakland Raiders. That team developed a nice core group with quarterback Derek Carr, linebacker Khalil Mack and wide receiver Amari Cooper. And the Raiders are on the ascent.

It may not happen overnight, but it may not take forever either.

Speaking of the coaching staff…

The Chip Kelly Factor

Head coach Chip Kelly’s most recent evaluations probably don’t speak too well of him, which might explain why there was so much disdain when the 49ers inked him at the conclusion of the 2015 season.

But we forget how Kelly turned a Philadelphia Eagles team — one coming off a 4-12 season in 2012 — into a back-to-back 10-win franchise in 2013 and 2014.

There are, of course, plenty of differences. And those are likely what the critics will point out.

Yet there are a lot of similarities too. Let’s focus on those.

The 2012 Eagles had a simple-rating-system mark of minus-8.9 and a scoring differential of minus-164 points, according to Pro Football Reference. In comparison, the 2015 49ers had a SRS of minus-5.5 points and a scoring differential of minus-149 — numbers that were actually better than what Kelly first inherited in Philadelphia.

Still not sold? Well, let’s take a look at what Football Outsiders gave the 2012 Eagles and 2015 49ers in terms of DVOA:

• 2012 Eagles — minus-22.4 percent (28th)
• 2015 49ers — minus-27.5 percent (32nd)

There isn’t too much of a difference here either. Putting it bluntly, if you’re in the bottom five in DVOA rankings, you’re pretty awful. It’s as plain as that. And, for what it’s worth, Kelly turned the 2013 Eagles into a team which ranked eighth in the NFL that year with a plus-15.2 percent mark.

Granted, those Philadelphia teams had a few more pieces with which to work. But we forget Kelly turned a relatively unknown quarterback in Nick Foles into a Pro Bowler his first season as head coach.

And now Kelly faces yet another quarterbacking situation in San Francisco with Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert. Should we be worried? Not according to Jason McIntyre of Fox Sports:

But Kelly’s reputation was forever stained by his actions in carving up the roster in 2015. Good news, 49ers fans. He won’t have that opportunity with San Francisco.

And yet there’s the concern the rest of the league has caught up with Kelly. NFL analyst Mark Schlereth felt this way when he spoke on Sacramento’s 1320 ESPN radio earlier this year.

Still, we’ve heard this narrative before. The 1985 Chicago Bears were supposed to be the team which finally “caught up” to former 49ers head coach Bill Walsh and his West Coast offense. And the West Coast offense is still a staple for many NFL teams today.

This isn’t to say Kelly isn’t the second coming of Walsh. But, from the optimist’s viewpoint, this doesn’t suggest the league has figured out Kelly’s offense either.

Heck, anything has to be better than what former head coach Jim Tomsula and offensive coordinator Geep Chryst rolled out last year.

The NFC West and the Schedule

San Francisco doesn’t benefit from playing in the toughest division in football. The NFC West boasts two playoff-likely teams, the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks, and a Los Angeles Rams team with a very stout defense.

Combine that with the Niners owning, along with the Atlanta Falcons, the toughest schedule in 2016 — opponents’ carrying over a winning percentage of .555 from last year — and the 49ers appear to be destined for a long, dreadful season.

We shouldn’t go out and openly suggest San Francisco will have the firepower to beat, let alone contend with, every team on its upcoming schedule.

But let’s stick within the division for a moment and focus on the teams the Niners will face twice a year.

Working our way up from the bottom, the Rams are vying to make some splashes following their move from St. Louis. Moving up to draft former Cal quarterback Jared Goff was one such move.

Still, Goff and the Rams have an unproven offense. Yes, the defense is good. But how much faith should one have in a Jeff Fisher-led team? He’s had just one better-than .500 year as a head coach dating back to 2008.

Moving onto the Seahawks.

True, Seattle isn’t going away as a top dog in the NFC in all likelihood. But this is a team coming off some very serious free-agent losses this offseason — linebacker Bruce Irvin, tackle Russel Okung, guard J.R. Sweezy and defensive tackle Brandon Mebane — and may also run into some cap problems here soon.

The Seahawks may still be good, very good. But will they be as dominant as they once used to? Maybe not. And their offensive line woes, similar to those of the 49ers, don’t appear to be going away.

So that leaves us with the Arizona Cardinals. Wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is aging, and the Cardinals have nice long-term options in Michael Floyd and John Brown, but the guy getting them the ball is the center point for what happens in Phoenix.

Yes, quarterback Carson Palmer is the linchpin. And he’s 36 years old with a history of recent injuries. Simply look back at how the Cardinals tanked in 2014 after Palmer went down, and it’s easy to see what might happen if something like this happens again.

In fact, most NFL teams are a mere injury or two away from disaster. It’s the nature of the league.

This isn’t to say the 49ers should be hoping for injuries to opposing players, but it’s an all-too real factor facing all 32 franchises each and every week.

All this can factor into the parity of the league. The NFL ladder is short, but it’s shaky too.

X-Factors and Unforeseen Circumstances

These are in direct correlation to the NFL’s parity. Teams go from risers to fallers in short order.

Rare are the teams like the New England Patriots, who seem to be good year after year. That’s an exception. Not a rule.

Here’s some food for thought. The Niners finished 5-11 last year, and four of those games were pretty narrow victories — two of them coming in overtime (Week 13 against the Chicago Bears and Week 17 against the Rams).

But the 49ers also had two contests in which they blew late-game leads — Week 5 against the New York Giants and Week 12 against the Cardinals. Remember that Cardinals game? Remember the costly penalty on defensive tackle Quinton Dial for his “hit” on Palmer?

Yeah, a game-changer. And not exactly the right call either.

Giving those two games to the 49ers, San Francisco would have finished with a 7-9 record last year. And pundits would have said the Niners had fallen from grace, but they wouldn’t be considered a laughingstock of the league.

All too often, games are decided by the slightest of factors — a key recovered fumble in the fourth quarter, inability to convert on a fourth-and-1 or even a missed field goal at the end of regulation.

Yes, the 49ers were trounced quite a bit last year. But they also lost some close games like the ones above.

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Let’s put it simply. The ball isn’t round. And critical decisions, on both sides, need to be made in a fraction of a second. That’s when mistakes are made and, the last we checked, every human being is capable of making them.

Are we trying to “rah rah” the 49ers into a 10-win team in 2016? No. The Niners, in all reality, aren’t going to be very good this year. At least not on the surface.

But there’s a strong chance they’ll be much better than anticipated. Going back to the Raiders, remember how they were the joke of the league? Not anymore. All it took were a few key pieces, the right coaching and a few things going their way.

Perhaps that’s what analysts will be saying about the 49ers a year from now.

Next: 49ers Measurements for Success in 2016 and Beyond

All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.